BRICS summit: Assessing dynamics and prospects

The 15th summit of BRICS comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa is scheduled to take place at Johannesburg between 22nd and 24th August 2023. Like the G20 summit to be hosted by India a fortnight later, the Johannesburg conference has attracted considerable media attention. This is due to South Africa’s extensive preparation and recent developments within Africa such as the coup in Niger and the unfolding drama around it. Given the complex geopolitical situation in the world today, what transpires at Johannesburg will be watched with heightened interest. 

Backdrop 

BRICS ranks among the more important multilateral groupings. It is a product of the 21st century, a conscious attempt to restructure the post-Cold War web of international relations. It began as a grouping of four countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – in 2006. Named ‘BRIC’, a term coined by Jim O’Neil of Goldman Sachs in 2001, it was a gathering of four emerging economies that seemed set to dominate the world economy by 2050. The first BRIC summit took place in Yekaterinburg, Russia in June 2009. Later BRIC increased its footprint by inviting South Africa to join it. This gave the grouping its present name – BRICS. South Africa participated for the first time in the third summit in April 2011. 

The political and economic weight of BRICS may be judged by the fact that it accounts for 42% of the world population, 27% of land area, 32% of GDP (in PPP terms) but only 16% of global trade. Now, the grouping has been seriously considering a move to expand its membership. Depending on how it resolves this issue, the clout of BRICS could rise further. 

A noteworthy tendency of BRICS is to fashion and project a non-Western view of the world. At times, this boils down to an anti-Western perspective. As the US-China strategic contestation intensifies, the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues and Niger emerges as a new focal point in Africa for rivalry between the West and Russia, the instinct of BRICS to display anti-Western inclinations will need to be monitored closely. In any case, BRICS is viewed as a counterweight to G7, although the two cooperated well and helped in nurturing a solution to the 2008 global financial crisis. This cooperation contributed to the success of G20 in subsequent years. 

Johannesburg: Key issues

Who may participate in the 15th summit and which countries may be admitted as new members of BRICS became the two most prominent issues in the build-up to the Johannesburg conference. 

Initially much uncertainty prevailed, given the arrest warrant issued in March 2023  by the International Criminal Court (ICC) against President Vladimir Putin for his alleged responsibility for war crimes in Ukraine. Consultations between Pretoria and Moscow followed and then it was announced with mutual agreement that Putin would participate in the summit virtually. This removed a major headache for the host government. 

Also Read | BRICS' idea of 'common currency', potential expansion creates jitters in the West

Besides, media speculation was rife on whether the other three big leaders – of India, China and Brazil – will participate in the summit physically. A well-known international news agency even carried a report on August 2 stating that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was unlikely to attend the 15th summit in person. This was scotched effectively by a tweet from the Indian PM who mentioned, after a telephone call with South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, that he would attend the BRICS summit. The other two leaders are also expected to participate physically. 

A major feature of the forthcoming summit will be the presence of important guests at the Outreach session. South Africa has invited leaders from 49 African states and 11 heads of various regional multilateral groupings such as ASEAN. 

Expansion in the membership of BRICS has been on its agenda for a couple of years. The decision taken at the last summit in June 2022 was to craft consensus on “the guiding principles, standards, criteria and procedures” for the expansion process. The foreign ministers meeting in Cape Town in June, followed by the sherpas meeting in Durban in July 2023, focused on this task. They seemed to have reached a mutually acceptable solution that awaits top leaders’ approval. The Johannesburg summit could announce the formula and perhaps even the first short list of new members. But expansion promises to be a gradual process. 

Among other issues to be deliberated at Johannesburg will be a host of old and new subjects under the overarching theme of ‘BRICS and Africa Partnership for Mutually Accelerated Growth, Sustainable Development and Inclusive Multilateralism.’ The summit is expected to advance the cause of Emerging Markets and Developing Countries (EMDCs) gaining more space in international economic decision-making, reform of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs), greater representation of the Global South in the UN system, relief for debt stress and increased resources for achieving Sustainable Development Goals. It will also discuss hot political issues such as the Ukraine conflict and the post-coup scenario in Niger that seems to have caused much disunity among African states, and increased tensions between the West and Russia. 

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As regards expanding intra-BRICS cooperation, the question of creating a common currency has received more attention in the international media than inside the conference rooms. BRICS does not have the required kind of sophisticated financial integration that, for example, the EU has acquired after arduous work over a long period. South African and Indian officials ruled out any move towards a BRICS currency. However, trade among BRICS members by utilising national currencies more and thus reducing the use of the US dollar will be the preferred path. Besides, the New Development Bank (NDB), a success story of BRICS, aims at further development. With a portfolio of 96 approved projects worth $32.8 billion at present, it is reaching its limits. It needs to expand its resource base. Therefore, expansion in its membership and re-capitalisation seem to be the directions it may take. 

India and BRICS 

India stands fully committed to BRICS and its goal to be an influential actor on the world stage. New Delhi champions a balanced approach by the grouping that stays true to its non-Western orientation and creates a firm basis for multipolarity. Indian experts point out that BRICS was created to counter US dominance and will, therefore, be opposed to dominance by any other power as well. 

A major disappointment for India is the failure of China and Russia to back the candidature of IBSA countries (India, Brazil and South Africa) for permanent membership of the UN Security Council. Endeavours to achieve this goal will continue, although a positive outcome is unlikely given the strained bilateral relations between China and India at present. Clearly, there is an imperative need for IBSA countries to enhance their internal unity and coordination as a means to improve the equilibrium within the BRICS. 

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India considers the BRICS as a potent instrument for global re-balancing, diversity and multipolarity. As PM Modi observed in September 2021, the grouping has achieved much success in its first decade and a half, and the need now was to “ensure that BRICS is more productive in the next 15 years.” 

The outcome of the 15th summit may have repercussions that go beyond the BRICS.

The upcoming summit in South Africa will bring together around 60 heads of state and will set expansionary standards for possible new BRICS members. However, as per Coin Gape, the final decision on which countries will join the grouping will probably be deferred.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

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