Climate Change: Uniting the threads of causes, consequences, and visible impacts

Climate change is a pervasive global phenomenon that affects all aspects of life. The rise in temperatures since the advent of industrialisation is evident, with the last decade marking one of the warmest periods in human history. This increase in temperature is primarily attributed to the emission of greenhouse gases during industrial processes.

If current greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue on their present trajectory, the planet is projected to surpass 2.8°C temperature increase by the end of the 21st century (13th UN Emission Gap Report 2022), leading to catastrophic and irreversible consequences. Already, temperatures have risen by 1.1˚C, and the evidence of this rise is apparent in the form of extreme weather events and escalating disasters. The frequency and intensity of cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes are on the rise, while heatwaves have become more pronounced, frequent, and severe, even occurring in previously unheard-of seasons.

An illustrative case is the early March heatwave in 2022, which originated in the northwest parts of India and Pakistan, subsequently impacting the Horn of Africa and battering Europe. The United Kingdom experienced one of the most severe heatwave conditions in recorded human history, with temperatures soaring to 41°C in London and causing a week-long emergency situation marked by raging forest fires, melting runways, and highways. The heatwave then spread to the United States and China, severely affecting the latter. Post-pandemic China faced electricity generation disruptions due to massive water scarcity and endured a drought-like situation, resulting in disruptions to supply chains and significant crop yield losses, estimated at 15%.

These events illustrate the urgent need to address climate change through mitigation measures and adapt to the changing environment. Failure to take timely action could lead to irreversible consequences with severe impacts on ecosystems, societies, and economies. It is crucial to pursue sustainable solutions and global cooperation to combat climate change effectively and secure a sustainable future for generations to come.

Causes of Climate Change

The earth's atmospheric system has historically maintained a temperature of around 15˚C, with an atmospheric CO2 concentration of approximately 280 ppm, remaining relatively stable for a staggering period of 800,000 years (climate.nasa.gov). This remarkable stability is attributed to the earth's well-balanced carbon cycle, which manages greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their absorption by natural sinks.

However, with the advent of industrialisation, a significant shift occurred. Unprecedented amounts of fossil fuels, such as coal, gas, and oil, have been extracted and utilised to meet the growing energy demands of humanity and various industries. The combustion of these fossil fuels releases greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, particularly CO2. As a result, the current atmospheric CO2 concentration stands at 421 ppm, as observed in the Mauna Loa lab of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on  3 June 2022.

To better understand the impact of these emissions, it is estimated that 2.13 billion tonnes of CO2 released into the atmosphere result in an increase of 1 ppm of CO2 concentration. Considering the latest observations, the excess CO2 in the atmosphere can be calculated by subtracting the historical level of 280 ppm from the current level of 421 ppm, resulting in 141 ppm. By applying the conversion factor, approximately 300 billion tonnes of excess CO2 have accumulated, contributing significantly to the acceleration of global warming and climate change.

The dramatic increase in GHG emissions, particularly CO2, due to human activities is the primary driver of climate change. As these emissions continue to rise, it is essential to recognise the urgency of taking collective action to mitigate impacts of the climate change. By transitioning to sustainable energy sources, implementing climate-resilient policies, and adopting responsible practices, we can strive to preserve the delicate balance of the earth's atmosphere and secure a sustainable future for generations to come.

Source: Global Climate Change (NASA)

Consequences of Climate Change

Climate change presents two primary categories of risks: physical risks, which include acute events like extreme weather phenomena such as heatwaves, floods, heavy rainfall, and intense cyclonic storms, and chronic risks, encompassing long-term impacts like glacier melting, permafrost thawing, and rising sea levels. While chronic risks may take time to fully manifest, we are already witnessing the occurrence of extreme weather events, moving from one disastrous event to another. A notable example is the early heatwave in March 2022, affecting India, Europe, and China, followed by the devastating floods in Pakistan in September 2022. The manifestation of such events underscores the urgency of addressing climate change and its immediate consequences.

Increased Visibility of Climate Change Impacts

The evidence of climate change impacts has become more pronounced in recent times. One striking example is the extremely severe cyclonic storm named 'Biparjoy,' which made landfall on the Gujarat coast during mid-June. This storm was exceptional in several ways, as such intense storms were historically uncommon in the Arabian Sea during the monsoon onset phase in the Indian region. 'Biparjoy' disrupted the monsoon system and caused a delay in its onset by nearly 20 days.

Simultaneously, while the cyclonic storm was affecting the region, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh experienced severe heat waves, compounded by increased humidity, which intensified heat stress and tragically claimed around 200 lives, as reported by the various media houses in India although respective state governments did not link it directly to the severe heat wave.

Eventually, the monsoon regained momentum and rapidly covered the entire Indian region. However, it brought extreme weather events to different areas. Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi experienced widespread cloud bursts, leading to massive water deluge in the hills and causing extensive property damage and hundreds of fatalities. The monsoon's progress across India exhibited significant spatiotemporal variations, keeping professionals and the national disaster response force on high alert. Despite the overall monsoon rainfall surpassing the normal levels, there is still a 15% area that is under deficit rainfall. Although monsoon rainfall has exceeded its normal by 5% as of 26th July 2023 and is in a good state, still around 15% of areas are under deficit rainfall and even these areas may be catching up soon.

 (Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Coverage as of 26th July 2023. Source: India Meteorological Department.)

While India is witnessing rainfall, floods and cloud bursts, severe heat waves continued to afflict regions outside of India. The United States and Europe witnessed scorching temperatures, with few places in Italy reporting highs as extreme as 48˚C (Sicily and Sardinia) during 12 to 20th July 2023 and this heat wave engulfed Spain, France, Germany and Poland.

(Bhuntar Valley Bridge Collapse in Kullu, H.P. India. courtesy PTI)

(A visitor is affected by the heat atop the Acropolis hill, during a heatwave in Athens, Greece, July 14, 2023.)

(Land Surface Temperature Image from Copernicus Sentinel-3 on 17 July 2023 Indicating Temperatures between 45˚C-50˚C, Severe Heatwave Conditions.)

The impacts of these hydrometeorological disasters have resulted in significant economic losses. From 2007- 2021, the estimated losses by the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) were approximately 87 billion US dollars for India alone. Globally, the total losses from such events during 2022 alone was estimated to be  a staggering 313 billion US dollars and increasing going forward (WMO report).

These events serve as clear indications of the escalating consequences of climate change, emphasising the urgent need for effective mitigation and adaptation measures on a global scale. Addressing climate change is crucial to safeguarding lives, property, and the environment for future generations.

Mitigation and Adaptation in the Face of Climate Crisis

The IPCC AR6 report, titled "A Code Red for Humanity," released in August 2021, serves as a stark warning of the escalating occurrences of extreme weather events worldwide. Asia, in particular, is highly vulnerable due to its limited adaptive capacity, long coastlines, and tropical climate.

While this year's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have only risen by 1%, as reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA), every passing day represents a lost opportunity. The window for climate action is rapidly closing, and the time to achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs) is running out. Despite targets to achieve net neutrality by 2050, existing nationally determined commitments (NDCs) fall significantly short. The Paris Agreement, aimed at limiting temperature rise to below 2˚C and preferably to 1.5˚C by the end of 2012, appears to be at risk of breaching much earlier, potentially as soon as 2030, especially considering the impact of El Niño phases.

Even if we manage to achieve carbon net neutrality by 2050, the excess GHGs already present in the environment will continue to exacerbate extreme weather events for at least the next three to four decades.

To address the challenges ahead, it is imperative to accelerate mitigation efforts by transitioning to carbon-neutral energy, decarbonising industrial processes, and improving sustainable transportation methods. However, alongside mitigation, adaptation efforts must also be scaled up significantly. This includes climate-proofing critical infrastructure along coastlines and enhancing the adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities, especially in the global South.

A collaborative and comprehensive approach to both mitigation and adaptation is essential to combat the climate crisis effectively. By taking urgent action now, we can pave the way for a more resilient and sustainable future for generations to come.

Time is of the essence, as the window for effective climate action is narrowing. International cooperation and commitment are crucial to meet the targets set by the Paris Agreement and limit global warming to below 2˚C, preferably to 1.5˚C. To ensure a sustainable future for generations to come, collective efforts are needed to address the causes of climate change, acknowledge the consequences, observe the increased visibility of impacts, and embrace mitigation and adaptation strategies as vital components of a global climate response. Only through concerted action can we navigate the challenges of climate change and secure a resilient and prosperous future for our planet.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)