Dragon of Arabia: Why Saudi-Iran peace deserves two cheers, not three

What happens when you throw a stone into a pond? It causes ripples that last a while, of course. Now, let us get philosophical and remember that the stone in question could be a burning piece of coal, a piece of hard rock, a crystal ball or a many-faceted diamond. We need to understand the pond and the stone to figure out the ripples.

These thoughts come to mind in a weekend of geopolitical surprise in which Saudi Arabia and Iran have shed their long-standing animosity and six years of a rift to resume diplomatic relations. This should ideally be good news in a world scarred by the Ukraine war. But the catch is that the deal has been brokered by China and brings closer a couple of authoritarian regimes. Here's where we need to realise that nothing is what it seems or may be. 

Memories flood in of charismatic British military officer Thomas Edward Lawrence, made immortal by David Lean in his Oscar-winning Lawrence of Arabia (which remains my favourite war epic). Lawrence befriended Arab tribes during the First World War to help the founding of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 1932. He offered critical support for an Arab revolt to fight the Ottoman Empire built by Turkey, only to usher in a new phase of Muslim rivalry in the region that Americans understandably call the Middle East.

I remember that in the 1970s and 80s then prime minister Indira Gandhi used to carefully refer to the region as West Asia, but in a world dominated by a US worldview, it was only symbolic that many Asians east of the Suez Canal would still call the region as the Middle East. Points of view and perceptions play a key role in geopolitics and diplomacy, and it makes sense to remember that one woman's West Asia is another woman's Middle East. And so, the Chinese role in the region can be seen as a case of expansionism in a new Cold War, though we can be sure that the Beijing mandarins in charge will say little and smile a lot. It also shows that having withdrawn from Afghanistan and being preoccupied with domestic politics, the US is increasingly leaving behind a diplomatic vacuum in which China is happy to leave a dragon footprint.

We had all along thought of Saudi Arabia as possibly the closest to Washington in the Trump years, when Sunni Muslim-led Riyadh was relentlessly bombing the Shia region of Yemen, irking fellow Shia zone Iran. Any normalisation of relations between Saudis and Iranians is good for a ceasefire in Yemen but will be met with caution in the US, whose tensions with Iran are well-known.

Money, oil and long-robed Arabs fighting turbaned Iranians seeking nuclear arms can make for fine Hollywood thrillers. Are we now looking at a Chinese James Bond or T. E. Lawrence somewhere? Is the so-called Asian century ushering in a new version of world domination? Is there a new masala script somewhere for Bollywood that is increasingly ambitious in telling stories in its own style?

Foreign policy wonks will say what they often do, expressing understandable scepticism on the durability of any peace in the Middle East. Israel, no friend of Iran, will watch all this with a predictable mix of hostility and aggression. A Russia-North Korea-China-Iran-Saudi axis may yet spur one more Third World War-based doomsday fiction on colluding dictators. But neither the UK nor the US seems to be in the mood to send a Rambo or James Bond to counter a Chinese villain in the new world.

All we can say is that we are entering a new normal in geopolitics, and India must feel lonelier than ever before as someone wary of China's increasing global role. However, India has plenty of diplomatic strengths. It is a friend of Iran except when forced by sanction-wielding Uncle Sam. It has excellent diplomatic relations with both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates despite its current government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi suffering criticism as being anti-Muslim. 

China's new role as a global interlocutor shows that, after wielding economic power in Africa and Asia, it is slowly testing the waters in West Asia. This would make India re-calibrate some of its positions in West Asia. 

The disturbing part lies in the fact that neither Saudi Arabia nor Iran is a liberal state. Iran's Islamist democracy is not a comfortable one for modern nations, as recent protests surrounding the plight of women in the country have clearly shown. Saudi Arabia remains an authoritarian state in effect led by a feared prince in Mohammed Bin Salman, who justifies human rights violations such as the murder of dissidents in the name of reform.

One way to look at all this is that only India, with its long history of familiarity with many facets of Islamic history and philosophy, is excellently placed to intellectually carve a place for itself in the new geopolitical normal. The Saudi-Iran reconciliation must be welcomed with peace and trade in mind. But a peace that reeks of injustice towards women or dissenting voices is not what the doctor ordered for West Asia. 

Perhaps we need a new-age United Nations in which the old-world post-colonial good manners need to be revisited in favour of a new order in which multi-party democracy, women's rights and legitimate dissent have a more prominent place. 

Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.
 

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