Explained: Did Turkey benefit as it delayed Sweden's NATO bid?

Russia's invasion of Ukraine shook the world in February 2022. Political and military arenas felt the weight of history as forces of a former superpower crossed borders to wage a war many thought would be over within weeks given Russia's more than decisive superiority over Ukraine in military might. The invasion suddenly brought the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) into focus and made European countries closer to Russia rethink their decades-old stance of military neutrality.

Sweden and Finland were among these nations. After Russian troops began their clash with Ukrainian forces, Sweden and Finland promptly applied for membership in NATO.

Why?

Because NATO was a guarantee of security, at least on paper, against external aggression. An attack on one NATO country is considered an attack against all. So at least in theory, the aggressor against a NATO nation will have to face the might of all 31 member countries. And to include new members, there must be approval from all current members.

Watch | NATO Foreign ministers attend meeting on Ukraine in Brussels

Sweden and Finland's path to NATO membership was not smooth. In focus have been two countries, Turkey and Hungary. But Turkey is considered somewhat of the main obstacle. After a delay caused by Turkey in giving its seal of approval, Finland joined NATO this year. However, it has not fully completed the process for Sweden's inclusion.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself has given the green light to Sweden's inclusion. But this needs to be ratified by Turkey's parliament. And procedural delay over the last year has been perceived as Turkey's reluctance to let Sweden in.

In May last year, Erdogan objected to Finland and Sweden's inclusion saying both countries need to crack down on elements within their borders which Ankara deems to be terrorists.

Has Turkey benefitted from its continued opposition to Sweden and formerly, to Finland's inclusion in NATO?

It's worth taking a look.

The moves in the Western, and Nordic camps

The West has always been keen on the expansion of NATO as the grouping was born as a West-supported anti-Russia alliance during the Cold War. However, the urgency appears to have increased after the outbreak of the Ukraine war.

Sweden and Finland's concessions to Turkey

Turkey made an agreement with Sweden and Finland at a NATO meeting in Madrid last year that saw the Nordic countries lift arms embargoes against Turkey. The countries also took some action against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the so-called Gulen movement. Along with Turkey, the United States and the European Union consider PKK to be a terrorist group. And Turkey considers the Gulen movement responsible for the 2016 coup attempt.

Also Read | Turkey and turnaround: Thanksgiving's economic upswing

Last year, Sweden lifted the ban on military equipment export to Turkey. Stockholm introduced an anti-terrorism bill in June that made being part of a terrorist organisation against the law.

Multiple incidents of Quran burning in Sweden have drawn sharp reactions in the Muslim world, including in Turkey. In response to this, Justice Minister Gunnar Strommer said Sweden was exploring the possibility of changes in the law which would ban the burning of the Quran in public.

Finland on its part, said last year that it would consider granting arms export to Turkey on a case-by-case basis.

Also Read | Finland, a NATO member, seals all its border crossings with Russia

Canada quietly reopened talks with Turkey to lift export controls on drone parts after Erdogan said in July that Sweden would eventually get the green light to join NATO. Canada is a NATO member.

Moreover, the Netherlands lifted restrictions on arms deliveries to Turkey.

All is not rosy

Turkey argues that the United States is trying to pressure Turkey by delaying the F-16 deal. Turkey had made the purchase request in 2021 to buy F-16 fighter jets and modernisation kits worth USD 20 billion. Although the US denies the connection between the F-16 deal and Turkey's delay in greenlighting Sweden's NATO bid, US Congress has heard opinions from lawmakers to use the deal as a way to nudge Turkey to approve Sweden's inclusion.

Moreover, just a day after Erdogan gave his seal of approval for Sweden to join NATO in July, the White House announced that it would go ahead with the transfer of F-16s while being in consultation with Congress.

So what's the current state of Sweden's bid?

There were signs on Wednesday (November 29) that Turkey may finally be moving ahead with the process.

Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom said that his Turkish counterpart told him that he expects parliament to ratify Sweden's bid within weeks.

Also Read | Turkey may ratify Sweden's NATO membership 'within weeks': Swedish minister

"I had a bilateral with my colleague, the (Turkish) foreign minister ... where he told me he expected the ratification to take place within weeks," Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom told reporters before the second day of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers.

"The Turkish foreign minister (Hakan Fidan) didn't present a date but said 'within weeks'," Billstrom said.

Hungary, another NATO member, is yet to give its seal of approval to Sweden's NATO membership as well. But Turkey is seen as the main obstacle.

"(Prime Minister) Viktor Orban has repeatedly said that Hungary won't be the last to ratify Sweden's membership," Billstrom said.

"That means that it is more in the hands of Ankara than maybe of Budapest. We expect white smoke from Budapest the moment there is white smoke from Ankara," Billstrom said.

(With inputs from agencies)