Explained: How can Pakistan reach ODI World Cup semifinals after New Zealand's win over Sri Lanka?
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After New Zealand’s massive five-wicket win over Sri Lanka, they have attended a Net Run Rate (NRR) of +0.743 with 10 points on board from nine matches. On the flip side, Pakistan are on eight points from eight matches with an NRR of +0.036. This will mean Pakistan will have to beat England and attend an NRR of +0.744 or better with 10 points. However, that task will be practically impossible to attend as Pakistan will have to win by mammoth margins.
Pakistan’s ODI World Cup campaign is all but over after New Zealand’s massive win over Sri Lanka in Bengaluru on Thursday (Nov 9). With the Kiwis winning by five wickets and 26.4 overs to spare, Pakistan’s task of reaching the semis is practically impossible as they meet England on Saturday at the Eden Gardens in Kolkata. On the other hand, this will also have bearings on India’s location for the semifinal tie with them now likely to face New Zealand in Mumbai.
New Zealand made a solid push to affirm their place in the top four with a crucial victory over Sri Lanka 👊#NZvSL | #CWC23 | 📝: https://t.co/y10v87Cf06 pic.twitter.com/dHoMhVUduO
— ICC (@ICC) November 9, 2023
What are Pakistan’s equation to reach the semifinals?
After New Zealand’s massive five-wicket win over Sri Lanka, they have attended a Net Run Rate (NRR) of +0.743 with 10 points on board from nine matches. On the flip side, Pakistan are on eight points from eight matches with an NRR of +0.036. This will mean Pakistan will have to beat England and attend an NRR of +0.744 or better with 10 points. However, that task will be practically impossible to attend as Pakistan will have to win by mammoth margins.
Qualification scenario for Pakistan
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Score 300 Runs, restrict England to 13 Runs
Score 400 Runs, restrict England to 112 Runs
Score 450 Runs, restrict England to 162 Runs
Score 500 Runs, restrict England at 211 Runs
Batting first would represent the best possible chance of reaching the semifinals, but even with the above mathematical calculations, they will find things hard. While England are in lacklustre form, seeing them get bowled out for 13 of 112 could be hard. However, if Pakistan score 450 runs, they could be in the game and restrict England below 162.
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What if Pakistan are to bowl first?
In case Pakistan are asked to bowl first, they will have an improbable task to attain the required NRR of +0.744. Mathematically they will have to restrict England to 50 runs and chase the target in 2.3 Overs (15 balls). However, this equation will only get worse if England pose a bigger target for the 1992 champions. Afghanistan on the other hand will have an even tougher task as they have a negative NRR which has also seen them on the backfoot.
With the picture now clear for the semifinals, India will face New Zealand in the repeat of the 2019 edition contest at the same stage. With revenge on the cards and home crowd to back, India will look to beat New Zealand and book their place in the summit clash on Sunday (Nov 19).
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