Explained | Will the new opposition alliance INDIA be able to topple the Modi juggernaut?

With less than a year to go for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the battle lines have been drawn between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition parties. On Tuesday (July 18), during the mega gathering of 26 parties in the southern Indian city of Bengaluru, the opposition leaders decided to name their new coalition as Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, a clever play on the acronym that reads INDIA.  

"Earlier, we were UPA and now all the 26 parties have given a name to the opposition and that is – Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). Everybody has agreed upon this, and the resolution for the name was passed unanimously," said Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, adding that "well begun" was "half done". 

Alliance borne out of political conveniences

The alliance, borne out of political conveniences as well as desperation is possibly the last-ditch attempt by the opposition to cobble together a grouping that can halt the charging juggernaut of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In the last two general elections, the NDA, led by PM Modi has decimated the opposition, rendering the Indian parliament devoid of a challenger that can put the government in dock or disrupt proceedings. 

The alliance experiment is delicate — one that will require extreme precision from all opposition parties to pull through. The joint opposition, in its draft agenda, has talked about setting up a committee for drafting the common minimum programme and  communication  points - the foundation to build upon. Additionally, the alliance is set to discuss seat sharing on a state-to-state basis during its next gathering, set to take place in Mumbai. 

Can opposition get over the seat-sharing hurdle?

The seat-sharing formula is the decisive point where most experts feel the alliance will be tested to the hilt. Would West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee be on board with Congress and Left parties contesting elections in the state? Would Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal allow Congress to compete in the capital once again and divide the votes? These are a few of the burning questions that most political pundits and voters are actively seeking answers to. 

If a consensus is not found on the issue, the alliance might be dead-on-arrival. However, in the fortunate circumstance that middle ground is found, another challenge quickly stares down the barrel - who will be the prime ministerial candidate?

Also read | NDA vs INDIA: Opposition renames alliance from UPA to INDIA ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha polls

Who will spar against PM Modi?

If the opposition believes that it will be able to win against PM Narendra Modi without a credible and powerful face squaring up against him, the battle could be over before it begins. No matter how the narrative is turned, India and Bharat, still vote for a face and Modi has been a darling of the middle class of India. 

The truth of the matter is that PM Modi and his gargantuan stature dwarfs most political leaders in India. There are a handful of leaders in the opposition that can go toe-to-toe against him. Kharge has pointed out Congress is not interested in “either power or the prime ministerial post" but if the push comes to shove, will Rahul Gandhi be projected as the alternative? And if Congress has its way, how will the other partners react to it? 

Watch | We have decided to fight elections together', says Nitish Kumar after opposition meet

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Foreshadowing the fissures?

Despite Kharge claiming that the opposition front was off to a solid start after rechristening itself, statements that might foreshadow the end of the alliance have started doing the rounds of the internet. 

While Congress claimed it was Rahul Gandhi who coined the name of the new alliance, TMC leaders said it was their supremo Mamata Banerjee who engineered the name. Similarly, AAP and other coalition partners went ahead and attempted to quietly gobble up the credit pie. 

If the hunger for credit is so evident at the first achievement, it looks highly improbable how the coalition will function when it will be up against the well-oiled election machinery of BJP-led NDA led by the astute Amit Shah.  

Also read: 38 vs 26: India's ruling NDA and opposition parties hold meetings to assert dominance

The quest for alternative 

It is not the first instance when the opposition has posited banding together to take on the ruling power. Ever since the emergence of coalition governments in the late 90s and early 2000s, the opposition parties, bar Congress and BJP have tried to come up with the idea of a strong 'Third Front'. The idea was to band all the regional parties in one big basket and go hammer and tongs against the established players. 

The idea looked decent, some might say, brilliant on paper but never materialised in reality. The 'Third Front' propped up before every election but the final outline always remained blurry, disjointed and in the end, a failed exercise. 

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