Explained: Maldives presidential runoff and dance of political alliances

As the Maldives' presidential election heads into a suspenseful runoff on September 30, political strategists and analysts are closely scrutinising the evolving dynamics that could reshape the nation's political landscape. 

Associate Fellow at ORF think tank, Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy, spoke to WION and provided valuable insights into the potential implications for the Maldives' foreign policy, particularly in relation to India, and the dance of alliances among key players.

India-out campaign 

One of the central questions looming over this election is the future of India-Maldives relations if the pro-China presidential candidate of the opposing PPM-PNC coalition Mohamed Muizzu, who took the lead in the first round of elections, secures victory over ruling Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih.

Muizzu's association with the India-out campaign has raised concerns, but the situation is nuanced. Aditya Shivamurthy explained that Muizzu's stance on India has appeared to be diluted during the campaign in comparison to the stance of Yameen. 

While he was once aligned with the India-out campaign, his recent actions suggest a shift away from anti-Indian rhetoric. 

Notably, the absence of India-out campaign T-shirts and reduced prominence in anti-India protests indicate a possible softening of his stance, the expert told WION. However, there is an indirect reference to India in all his campaigns as he has called for foreign soldiers to leave the country. 

This change, Shivamurthy suggested, could be attributed to Muizzu's desire to forge alliances with other parties, including the Democrats, led by Mohamed Nasheed.

"That said, he has continued to be a good advocate for good relations with China. He has also said that once he comes to power he will he will have more people-to-people contacts and bringing-in more Chinese tourists to the Maldives so that story always exists. He has always been a pro-China guy and it continues to be that way unless there is something substantial that happens," the expert said. 

Nasheed as king-maker 

None of the candidates managed to secure more than 50 per cent of the vote required for a first-round victory held on September 9. 

Former President and current Speaker of the People's Majlis (parliament), Mohamed Nasheed, who had previously parted ways with the ruling Maldives Democratic Party (MDP) to form his own party, The Democrats, has emerged as a pivotal figure leading up to the runoff. 

The Democrats secured a third-place finish in the initial round, prompting both President Solih's MDP and the PPM to seek Nasheed's support. His support may play a crucial role in determining the election's outcome. 

Aditya Shivamurthy said that the second round is where the real political manoeuvring takes place, as parties and candidates strive to secure support and form strategic alliances.

The ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) has signalled its willingness to engage with the Democrats, indicating a potential alliance. 

However, the expert said, "The Democrats have not shown anything as such probably the Democrats trying to indicate that the MDP has been at a loss by losing Nasheed. They have not yet made it clear if they want to join the MDP or PPM. They are still keeping their options open." 

Additionally, Democrat member Mohamed Nasheed has reportedly also hinted that he may be considering the possibility of supporting Muizzu of the PPM-PNC coalition. But it is yet to be seen how things pan out. 

On this, the expert said, "Surprisingly this time the Democrats are the king-makers, Nasheed is the king-maker, and Qasim and other players are far beyond the race." 

The political landscape also includes other candidates, such as Qasim Ibrahim from the Jumhooree Party, Umar Naseer as an independent presidential candidate.

Their positions and alliances are yet to crystallize fully.

MNP's leader Colonel (Retired) Mohamed Nazim on Tuesday (September 12) joined hands with the opposition PPM-PNC coalition. 

The expert said what's noteworthy is that the MDP had previously built "a kind of fortress where they didn't really interact with other parties much."

"In the initial days, when Nasheed split and the coalition was breaking apart MDP made sure that they had the Maldives development alliance on their side, the Adhaalath Party on their side but apart from those two parties they never really had this vigour to reach out to other parties and build up broader coalition." 

On the other hand, he noted, "PPM, the Democrates, the Jumhooree Party and other independent candidates they consistently met each other... try to keep negotiations open." 

"Here is where I see the progressive alliance being on a bit of an advantage," he said. 

Maldivian presidential elections

During the first round of elections, Mohamed Nasheed's proxy candidate, Ilyas Labeeb, who garnered 15,839 votes, accounting for 7.18 per cent of the total secured the third position.

Notably, the independent candidate Umar Naseer emerged as the closest competitor to The Democrats, amassing less than half the votes secured by Nasheed's party, with a total of 6,343 votes, representing 2.87 per cent of the vote share.

Qasim Ibrahim from the Jumhooree Party, a familiar face in the race, lagged behind the independent candidate Umar Naseer, suggesting a decline in his popularity compared to previous elections. 

Ibrahim secured only 5,460 votes, making up 2.47 per cent of the total votes.

The Maldivian National Party's Mohamed Nazim, who positioned himself as the leader of the 'Indians-out' campaign, failed to gain significant traction and received only 1,907 votes, accounting for 0.86 per cent of the total votes. 

It's worth noting that in the upcoming second round, only the candidates who placed first and second will compete for the presidency.