EXPLAINED | What will happen if the world fulfills its goal of net-zero emissions?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in a 2022 report stated that the global temperatures will reach a state of stability when global carbon dioxide emissions hit net zero. 

The report outlined that to achieve this stability at the 1.5°C (2.7°F) target, global net zero carbon dioxide emissions should be attained in the early 2050s. Similarly, for the 2°C (3.6°F) goal, the timeline extends to the early 2070s.

The report may have given a glimmer of hope for stable temperatures amidst concerns about rising sea levels and more intense storms. This also fueled enthusiasm for the global net-zero campaign and indicated that the positive outcomes of emission reduction efforts might finally manifest. 

However, now questions are raised about what really lies after the world achieves net zero emissions. 

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Findings of research published in the journal Frontiers in Science on Tuesday (Nov 14) suggested that while global temperatures will likely stabilise when countries achieve net-zero goals, there is no absolute certainty.

According to 21 Earth scientists who looked into how over 20 land and sea systems could transform after the world achieves net-zero emissions, the surface temperatures could stabilise swiftly. However, other aspects of the climate are proving challenging to slow down. 

What does the study point out? 

The study suggested that a considerable chance that global warming may persist, as accumulated heat continues to influence the climate. It also said that conversely, the world might cool as the excess heat redistributes, Japan Times reported while quoting the research published in the journal. 

Even in a stabilised temperature scenario, the researchers anticipate ongoing sea level rise and ecosystem shifts, said Sophia Palazzo Corner,  lead author of the study and PhD student at the Center for Environment Policy at Imperial College, London.  

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"Even in a world that stabilises its global temperature, we would expect to see continued sea level rise, ecosystem changes, changes to ice sheet mapping, continued ocean warming, and acidification of the ocean waters,” Corner said. 

The study also underscored the importance of reducing emissions swiftly, pointing out that there is uncertainty regarding potential post-net-zero warming scenario. 

It also highlighted the intricate dynamics between the ocean and the atmosphere, where the ocean absorbs over 90 per cent of planet's additional heat.

The research acknowledged the complexity of the world's systems and stressed that the aftermath of net zero is more intricate than a straightforward outcome. 

"The climate is a very complex system and it’s hard to know precisely how it’s going to respond to changes like this,” said a researcher with Berkeley Earth Zeke Hausfather. 

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As per the report, risks and uncertainties exist around factors such as permafrost, ocean-ice sheet interactions, and wetland methane emissions. 

Additionally, emissions reductions are expected to be gradual, with the impacts lasting for decades or even centuries. 

A research fellow in cloud physics at the University of Leeds Declan Finney said that net zero should be viewed as a milestone rather than a final destination. 

"Climate change won’t stop when we reach net zero," he said. 

COP28

Over the past 30 years since the Rio Summit and the initiation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Conference of the Parties to the Convention (COP) has gathered member nations annually. During these meetings, the COP assesses and identifies climate measures, determining ambitions and responsibilities.

COP28, which is set to kick off on November 30 in the UAE, is poised to mark a pivotal juncture as the global community evaluates its advancements under the Paris Agreement. 

The inaugural Global Stocktake (GST) is set to deliver a thorough evaluation of developments since the adoption of the Paris Agreement. This assessment will try to synchronise endeavors in climate action and will be identifying necessary measures to address existing gaps in progress.

COP21 resulted in Paris Agreement, rallying international collaboration to restrict the global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. It also called for proactive measures to adapt to the current impacts of climate change.

The big debate 

Developed countries, having historically contributed more to industrialisation and emissions, are frequently held accountable for the majority of global pollution. 

Many argue that these nations should bear a greater responsibility in mitigating the impacts of climate change and pollution.

On the other hand, developed nations often assert that emerging economies, in their pursuit of rapid industrialisation and economic growth, are currently major contributors to pollution. However, developing nations say that imposing strict environmental regulations on them could hinder their progress and economic development.

(With inputs from agencies)