If Ukraine does lose the war, will Putin really be the winner?

It was nearly a year ago, on February 24, 2022, when tanks and armoured vehicles rolled into the Ukrainian territory along with nearly 200,000 soldiers. Russian President Vladimir Putin was brimming with confidence of an impending victory, and his forces progressed up to Kyiv without much resistance, but by April they had to retreat and shift focus to the separatist region of Donbas. Putin’s dream triumph has been eluding him as the Ukrainian troops withstood the initial onslaught and came up with a strong counteroffensive with the help of arms and warfare inputs from the West. As a consequence, the war has stretched much beyond Putin’s calculations and imagination, turning out to be much costlier than anticipated, while measures like conscription bred discontent among Russians at home, further adding to his woes. 

Cutting the umbilical cord 

Cut to December 25, 2022, Ukrainians for the first time celebrated Christmas earlier, cutting their umbilical cord with the Russian tradition, venting their anger and resentment over the massive devastation in their homeland, loss of dear ones and livelihood, homes being reduced to rubble and suffering the vagaries of the extreme winter cold without power and heating. 

Pictures capturing the massive destruction, pain and agony send a chill down the spine and remind us about the grisly, despicable repercussions of war. It takes so much to build, and just a whim to destroy. 

It was a subdued Xmas celebration in Ukraine, but one that was marked by exceptional resilience, courage and indefatigability amidst suffering. Many had lost a family member, kin, friend, neighbour, or benefactor, in the massive waves of strikes by Russian missiles, rockets and kamikaze drones, but they still lit candles despite their hearts seething with pain, just to spite the enemy. 

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Families of fallen Ukrainian soldiers decorated Christmas trees on their graves as heavens showered snow as if it were sharing their grief. Volunteers in the southern Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv made a Christmas tree out of camouflage nets that were donated to soldiers fighting on the frontline after the holidays. It was a poignant, pensive Christmas for Ukrainians. 

A fortnight later, Russia also celebrated Christmas, on January 7, since its Orthodox Church still follows the Julian calendar and not the Gregorian calendar in which Xmas falls on December 25. Going by the celebrations in Russia, there was not even the faintest inkling of the country being at war, but this picture is just superficial. 

Every war bleeds the economy within, during and afterwards. The so-called “special operations” have resulted in massive casualties for Moscow’s forces also, as Putin had to order a partial mobilisation. 

Loss of Russian men and machines 

Remember, Moscow had a strong army of 850,000 active troops before the invasion. When war gets extended to a year, the costs are obviously high and though Russians may be living a normal life now — as there is no war action on Russian soil — the costs of the war will pinch them sometime eventually. 

As per the estimates of UK intelligence officials, the Russian regular forces along with the Wagner troops may have suffered around 175,000-200,000 casualties. 

Ukraine has been using weapons supplied by several countries and managed to repulse the attack as Russia lost captured ground in a massive counter-offensive. 

Conscription of 300,000 recruits and the deployment of Wagner Group mercenaries revealed that casualties in the Russian army had been massive. And now, as the West is again lining up fleets of Challenger, Leopard and Abrams tanks, more fatalities would follow. Since the mobilisation call led to protests and Russian men used all possible ways to flee, there would be more reliance on the mercenaries and the Wagner group would further grow in stature and pose a challenge to the Russian army. 

Russia is estimated to have lost nearly 40% of its fleet of tanks in the Ukraine war, as per a count by the specialist think tank, the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS). 

It lost the missile cruiser Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black SeaFleet, in April when it was hit by Ukrainian missiles. Putin’s spending on war material has also gone up as he has been procuring Kamikaze drones and missiles from Iran and Pyongyang. 

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Fall from grace, dent in image 

The invasion has hit Russia in other ways as well, as it has also lost its position of pre-eminence in the comity of nations. Its image of a powerful country in the region in the post-Soviet space has been hit hard. Moreover, Putin is aligning with rogue nations and those looked at with a doubt as he builds a new axis, bringing Moscow into its closest ever relations with China, North Korea and Iran. Russia, Iran, and North Korea are facing restrictive economic sanctions and are tying up for trade to circumvent the punitive measures besides working together on tactical and strategic levels. The G-7 nations are weighing sanctions on Chinese, Iranian and North Korean firms for aiding Russia’s military. 

It’s not difficult to fathom what Putin wanted by invading Ukraine, but Russians definitely would not like seeing their country being clubbed with North Korea and Iran.  

Former comedian Vs leader flaunting macho image 

The war can make or mar image, there will be twists and turns as it progresses but providence seems to have been favouring Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, a former actor and comedian. The war has given him a grand entry on the stage of geopolitics all of a sudden, and he has been making the right moves. His leadership has won him acclaim and he has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance. Zelensky was named the Time Person of the Year for 2022. 

He shed suit and tie and switched to wearing army-green T-shirts and sweatshirts in public appearances since the onset of the war in solidarity with his troops fighting Russians, and the world has seen him wearing the same clothes for the past 10 months, even while visiting abroad. 

Commentators even drew a parallel between his attire and Winston Churchill's historic appearance at the White House during World War II in a siren suit. 

Putin, known to be fond of his macho image, has been presenting himself as a tough leader, while scolding a minister during a meeting that was captured live. The war has kept him away from his macho pursuits as he had been photographed shirtless while riding a horse, firing darts with a crossbow at a grey whale from a motorboat, flooring the opponent in a Sambo wrestling session. 

What will Russia and Putin gain and lose? 

Ukraine is devastated and may well take a decade or more to bounce back. Rebuilding Ukraine after the destruction caused by the Russian invasion will cost around $349 billion, said a joint assessment by the World Bank, European Commission and Ukraine government. 

The Russian economy, on the other hand, will contract further due to the price cap on its crude oil and the EU’s embargo on oil and petroleum products. The effect of sanctions will become more evident on the ground gradually as public finances will shrink, and domestic manufacturing will be under stress. 

The Munich Security Conference saw nations pledging all support for Ukraine, expediting weapons’ supply and imposing tougher sanctions on Moscow. 

It will also be held accountable for war crimes as leaders mentioned Bucha and Mariupol. 

The earlier the war ends the better for both Ukraine and Russia, and the world as well, since till then the possibility of the conflict escalating will keep lurking. 

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.) 

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