In a transitioning world order, what are India's chances?

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine last year, the world already witnessed how fault lines that existed for a long time between different power blocs bore prominence and continued to shape and reshape. Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, wary of the ever-spreading NATO, announced the ‘liberation’ of Donetsk and Luhansk, two regions in Ukraine bordering Russia. 

Further, NATO’s hug to Finland as well as the recent adventurism by the Wagner Group amidst an all-out war, manifested in the coup attempt have only exacerbated Putin’s invincibility in Russia. However, the Wagner crisis seems to be averted for now but whether it will last long or not is yet to be answered. 

Albeit the cold shoulder to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, at the recent 2-day NATO summit, the regular and covert support to Ukraine coming straight from the US and its allies has kept Russians dwindling for a final solution in Ukraine. 

In the meantime, the biggest likely gainers are China and, to some extent, India. The pertinent query is whether India decides to yield the space open for China to manoeuvre things or compete with China to consolidate its own position in evolving international affairs. 

China arrives with a bang but will the world even whimper?

Beijing has already upped the ante as it has embarked upon several diplomatic actions aimed at toppling the United States from the role of the global peacemaker or the diktat issuer. The signs are worrisome not only for the USA or its allies but also for India which has, though lately, decided to get over its meagre regional credentials and assume a global role. 

Saudi-Iran deal: How did China snatch the pivotal position of US?

China recently brought two conventional belligerents - Saudi Arabia and Iran to a negotiation table and catalysed a deal sending worrying signs to the US, a key player in the Middle East. Previously, under Donald Trump’s presidency, the US unilaterally decided to pull out of the JCPOA- Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action- a deal between P5 (five permanent members of UNSC) plus Germany and Iran. It left Tehran with no option but to side with Beijing in the long run.

The Saudi Arabian story also has got the US at its genesis. Before coming to the helm of affairs, Joe Biden vowed to act against the killers of Jamal Khashoggi, a fierce critic of Mohammad bin Salman, the Saudi Arabian prince, and the prospective ruler. Reports allege the involvement of MBS in Khashoggi’s assassination and thus Biden’s election plank seems to have taken Saudi-US relations to a new low. Preying on the evolving equations, Beijing stitched the two Islamic nations with the common thread of anti-Americanism. 

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Russia- Ukraine conflict: China’s peacemaker moment

Major world powers expect Beijing to rein in Vladimir Putin so that the devastation in Europe gets arrested. In the backdrop of the West galvanising against Russian interests, Chinese influence, buoyed by the humongous economy, appears decisive in breaking the logjam and is likely to play as a saviour of Russian causes. Sanctioned by almost all the advanced economies, Moscow’s markets seek refuge in China’s deep pockets and Beijing in return gets Russia to play the unconventional second fiddle in the Sino-Russia relations. 

France snubs US, China ends up with the last laugh

A disappointing end to the France-Australia submarine deal coupled with the formation of AUKUS has contributed negatively to the US-France relations. As the ties between Paris and Washington undergo restructuring, Paris has openly called off  ‘USA’s leadership’ in geopolitics. French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to China in April this year and his ‘America’s followers’ statement, not resonating well in the US, is a clear-cut sign that France under his watch might not toe the Pentagon’s line and may pursue a foreign policy with an unprecedented sense of autonomy. 

India, the only silver lining for the developed and developing world

Well, perhaps the only country in the global south, which has remained committed to its longstanding abhorrence of taking sides is India. With few abstentions in the UN appearing pro-Russian, New Delhi smartly tried to turn the optics in its favour and smoothen its position by providing relief materials to Ukraine. Indian Prime Minister Modi’s ‘not the era of war’ remark to Putin resonated well in the Western media giving credibility and contributing to the legitimacy of India’s role as a peacemaker. Nonetheless, Russia too has identified India along with China as its ‘main’ allies in foreign policy strategy. 

In China vs Europe, India takes the cake

As China flexes its might in the South China Sea violating the UNCLOS and preying upon regions like Hong Kong and Taiwan; sitting upon the crucial information pertaining to the origin of Covid; unleashing its debt-trap juggernaut to subjugate nations, Beijing falls behind New Delhi in getting perceived with the same degree of trust as India in Western Capitals. 
Also, the recent visit to the US by PM Modi and the grand treatment India got prefaces the big game the world is seeking to play with India taking the lead position. 

Is India ready to play the leading role?

In order to play the protagonist in the big game of geopolitics, India will have to start from its backyard itself. New Delhi must ameliorate its efforts to become a more reliable partner for its neighbours by sending friendly signals to neighbouring capitals and undoing the strained ties. 

The world takes note of India due to its cultural robustness and vibrant cosmopolitanism. Taking India’s acceptance upwards, virtues as such are nowhere to be found in the Chinese discourse. However, along with keeping the heterogeneity of the society and tolerance intact, India needs to consolidate its democratic credentials further. 

Despite China’s economic prowess, New Delhi stands out as the ultimate pacifier in the global south. It has a role to bridge the ever-expanding gap between the global South and the global North in the transitioning geopolitics. The strategic balance is well-poised between India and China in the choppy waters of international politics and the world must meticulously choose its navigator.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)  
 
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