In US-China struggle for global dominance, the outcome is uncertain

"You can’t eat democracy. Human rights may sustain the spirit but not the body.”

This quote, from a speech by Zambian president Hakainde Hichilema at a US-sponsored Summit of Democracy, may be one of the most important keys to understanding why most of the world’s population live in countries whose leaders do not share Western values – and why a new world order now in the making might be dominated by China.

To avoid being branded as a US-centric event, the Summit of Democracy was co-hosted by Costa Rica, the Netherlands, South Korea and Zambia, whose leader’s speech was broadcast from Lusaka. The mostly virtual conference involved 120 countries and was part of an intense flurry of diplomatic activity in March and early April.

The one that made most headlines around the world was a three-day state visit to Moscow by Chinese President Xi Jinping just a few days after the International Criminal Court in The Hague issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin for war crimes arising from Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Speculation that the visit would pave the way for a peaceful settlement of the conflict proved groundless. While China repeatedly abstained from United Nations votes condemning the Russian assault on Ukraine, the visit left no doubt that China’s need for a steady supply of Russian oil overrode concerns over violations of the UN charter, to which China subscribes.

To hear US intelligence analysts tell it, China is watching the war on Ukraine closely because it could provide lessons for a Chinese attack on Taiwan, which Beijing considers part of greater China.

Much to the anger of the Chinese government, Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, met the speaker of the US House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, in his home state of California in what Washington described as a transit stopover, not an official visit. McCarthy emphasized the need for the US to continue arms sales to Taiwan and strengthen economic cooperation.

Tsai-Ing-wen’s California stopover came at the tail end of a visit to Central America where her country suffered a painful defection a few days before her arrival: Honduras broke relations with Taiwan and officially established diplomatic ties with China.

It was an act of what some in the foreign policy community call checkbook diplomacy – China promised to finance a hydroelectric dam.

The Honduran defection left Taiwan with just 13 countries with which it has diplomatic ties. Since 2017, the Dominican Republic, Panama, El Salvador and Nicaragua all ditched Taiwan in favour of China.

Most of Latin America having formal ties with China allows it to play a prominent role in a region once described as “America’s backyard.” Between 2005 and 2020, China has invested more than $130 billion in Latin America, according to the United States Institute of Peace which says China-Latin America trade has risen so steadily that it is expected to reach more than $700 billion in the next ten years.

As to “you can’t eat democracy” – Chinese aid or loans are not tied to lectures on the observation of human rights and the importance of democratic governance.

That is an attitude appreciated in Africa, where China has long roots and U.S. companies have shied away from investing, complaining about poor infrastructure and corruption. China is less concerned and as a consequence, it has become Africa’s largest two-way trading partner, with $254 billion of business by 2021, according to statistics from the U.S. Institute for Peace.

“We switched from being the No. 1 trade partner or the No. 1 investment partner in two dozen countries, to China being the No.1 trade and investment partner,” Senator Chris Coons, a Delaware Democrat who has worked on African issues in Congress, told reporters accompanying Harris. “Our challenge for this decade is to address that.”

It is as big a challenge as to expand American influence in Latin America.

“Most African countries are rightly unapologetic about their close ties to China,” Yemi Osinbajo, vice president of Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, said in a tweet during an African tour by U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris. “China shows up where and when the West will not and/or are reluctant.”

Harris, who visited Ghana, Tanzania and Zambia, was the latest and most senior of 18 American officials to visit Africa this year. Treasure Secretary Janet Yellen came in January and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visited Ethiopia and Nigeria in February.

The projects the vice president announced included about $1 billion of new programmes and investments empowering African businesswomen, $100 million for security assistance in West Africa and $500 million to facilitate trade with Tanzania.

President Joe Biden, who hosted a summit for African leaders in December, has promised to commit $55 billion to the African continent in the next few years but details have yet to be specified. African leaders tend to be wary of such commitments because it is never certain whether another administration will stick to them.

Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, did not endear himself to Africans by describing their continent as a place of “shithole countries.”

To tighten relations with African countries, the U.S. not only has to catch up with China’s advantage on projects already completed or in the works but also with Russian-African relations that are deep and go back to the Cold War, when the Soviet Union sided with African liberation movements.

Unlike the US, the Soviet Union provided both rhetorical and material support, including weapons, for groups fighting for an end to South Africa’s racist apartheid system.

That explains why of the 35 countries that abstained from last year’s U.N. General Assembly vote condemning the Russian assault on Ukraine, 17 were African. They included South Africa, Angola and Algeria.

While in the West, the outcome of the vote – 141 in favour – was hailed as evidence of overwhelming support for Western democratic values; it is worth noting that more than two-thirds of humankind live in countries governed by the fence-sitting abstainers. They include the world’s most populous countries, China and India.

As a result of the war on Ukraine, securing supply chains for critical minerals and materials such as battery metals which Africa has in abundance, has become ever more important. Brace yourself for fierce competition and assiduous courting.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.) 

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