Is ex-PM Nawaz Sharif's return a 'deal' with Pakistan military establishment?

Nawaz Sharif's return to Pakistan comes at a time when the nation is being spearheaded by an interim prime minister with elections to be held early next year. With Imran Khan out of the way, Sharif's return after four years of self-imposed exile in London, should not be viewed without any implications for Pakistan's political future. 

The three-time former Prime Minister and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) supremo is expected by many to re-enter the country's politics. 

Husain Haqqani, former Pakistan's Ambassador to the United States, told WION, "Nawaz Sharif's return amounts to acknowledgment by Pakistan's establishment that it was wrong in removing him from office by judicial fiat six years ago."

Writer and Political Analyst, Amjad Ayub Mirza told WION, "Three times prime minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif has arrived in Pakistan to try to become prime minister for a fourth time." 

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"His arrival suggests that he had made a 'deal' with the military establishment as well as the deep state of neighbouring and friendly countries including Saudi Arabia. However, his elevation to the office of prime minister will only win public acceptance if Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf are given a level-playing field." 

Sharif's decision to return after getting a protective bail on legal cases against him shows his confidence that he won't be arrested. 

Many are hoping that there could be a return to political normalcy in a nation that has witnessed growing uncertainty. 

Throughout his political career, Nawaz Sharif has faced a series of highs and lows. 

He was first elected as Prime Minister in 1990, only to be dismissed in 1993. He returned to power in 1997, but his government was overthrown by a military coup in 1999. Sharif's subsequent exile and return in 2007, along with his political comeback in 2013, makes one thing pretty clear - his resilience as a political leader.

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In recent years, Pakistan's political landscape has been marked by controversy and allegations of electoral fraud. 

Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, which denounced the 2013 elections as rigged, came to power in 2018, leading to Sharif's resignation following a corruption probe.

Nawaz Sharif's return, with the intention of leading the PML-N in the upcoming 2024 general elections, is expected to provide a viable alternative to now-jailed Imran Khan, former envoy Haqqani said. 

"He has led PML-N in winning three elections and still retains support in Punjab. That makes him crucial as the alternative to Imran Khan, whom the military previously backed and can no longer accept," he told WION. 

Sharif's return also raises questions about the role of Pakistan's establishment, particularly the military. 

Earlier, interim PM Anwaarul Haq Kakar reportedly said, “The caretaker government has no soft corner for PML-N or any other political party … how can a caretaker government strike such a deal?” 

While Sharif is still barred from participating in elections, his return to Pakistan's political landscape may serve as a stabilising force, potentially facilitating the healing of the country's deep political divisions.