Modi in the US marks a new high in India ties but engagement with Pakistan is the real test

“How do you solve a problem like Pakeeestaan!” I do feel like singing aloud a parody of that famous song from ‘The Sound of Music’ that goes “How do you solve a problem like Maria!”

As Indian prime minister Narendra Modi kicks off what seems like a promising strategic visit to the US, I wonder how strategic this is. That 'S' word is an overused one better measured in outcomes and ground-level action rather than fancy phrases of diplomats whose facility with glib words is a core competency that often gives away little in reality.

While it is true that relations between the world’s top democracies have come a long way since the lows of the 1970s, and is now poised for new-age cooperation in technology and defence, I would still look out for the ultimate test: how the two deal with Pakistan.

“Stronger together” is a nice way to describe the current cosiness between Washington and New Delhi in a geopolitical gambit to contain Chinese influence in Asia. But Mr. Modi needs to be gently reminded that Indo-American ties may be making history but geography is a different matter altogether.

Geography does matter because India stands right next to Pakistan and right below China on the world map. Things have indeed come a long way since the 1990s when the US ignored Indian warnings and intelligence reports of growing Islamic militancy in the Afghanistan-Pakistan (AfPak) area that bit into Kashmir. Uncle Sam then was mentioned as a possible (not probable) mediator in India’s Kashmir dispute with Pakistan. 

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Though the US didn’t play ball, there was a lot of superpower superciliousness in its behaviour. The 9/11 attacks was a rude awakening for the US and the rise of India's information technology and pharmaceutical industries showed strong business relations that put behind Cold War animosities. Nuclear tests by India in 1998 were a setback that was turned on its head in 2006 by a bilateral nuclear deal when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh met his counterpart George W Bush.

However, have things really, I mean really, changed from those days in a geopolitical sense? For me, the answer to that would depend on how the US relates to India on the Pakistan question in the coming days.

For the record, at the UN, China has just supported Pakistan in stopping the blacklisting of 26/11 Mumbai attack conspirator Sajid Mir of the officially banned but unofficially entertained Pakistan-based terror group Lashkar-e-Taiba. Beijing this month offered $1 billion to Islamabad in what looks like a rollover of an old loan. This is only part of a long list of economic investments and aid tying Pakistan to the Dragon’s apron strings.

When the buck stops it is India’s neighbourhood that gets tense when Pakistan and China form an uneasy alliance between a shaky democracy and one that is not. The US is a faraway power that flew out of Afghanistan only recently after a messy couple of decades setting up military support that failed miserably with the return to power of the Taliban.

India and the US now need to co-engage Pakistan in subtle ways so that bilateral interests are best served for regional stability.

This means three things. First, a clear signal must go out inside and from the State Department that strategic engagement with India puts it at a different level where it is a part of the subcontinental solution and not part of the problem as it was once perceived to be. Second, the US with Indian guidance or partnership, must move to engage Pakistan beyond the arms of its state such as the government or the military. Pakistan needs social reform alongside political reform for long-term democratic governance and stability. 

Thirdly, economic aid through institutions like the IMF and World Bank may be used as levers with what I call creative diplomacy to reform Pakistan socially. This would require a structural adjustment going beyond the usual macroeconomic stability that the IMF prescribes in its one-size-fits-all approach. This requires social, diplomatic and cultural chutzpah that requires civilisational understanding of South Asia. Failing this we will have only short-term band-aid diplomacy.

This is not the right time to discuss the details of what is going on inside Pakistan's murky political corridors.  But this much can be said: without broad-basing Pakistan’s civil society, social fabric and economic middle classes, the country will remain in the grip of decadent feudal lords, opportunistic generals, self-serving politicians and assorted obscurantists. Each of these will happily serve Chinese interests unless they are approached with a sense of detail. Pakistan is not as homogenous as assumed by conventional diplomats.

Some out-of-the-box thinking is required urgently.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.) 

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