Modi’s visit to Paris is about repositioning Indian role in European peace and security

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been invited as a guest of honour for Bastille Day in France this week, by President Emmanuel Macron. This invitation comes weeks after the White House state dinner in Washington which was definitely a dramatic increase in the cooperation between US-India relations, strategically meandering the disagreements regarding Russia’s war on Ukraine.

However, Modi’s visit to France this week will be of a different flavour altogether. The visit will not only mark the re-visitation of Indo-France strategic partnership along areas of cooperation like energy security, defence technologies, maritime security and trade but also recognise India’s status as a key player in the Indo-Pacific. This also remains a strategic opportunity to re-orient India’s potential contribution to European vis-a-vis global security.

India’s relation with France, captures a larger vision to protect commitments to international law, reshaping the multipolar world with effective multilateralism and commitment to the larger regional security in the Indo-Pacific. The shared vision of a free, open and rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific has been congruent among both countries, understanding Chinese positionality in the region. Both of them, therefore, acknowledge the importance of a functional strategic partnership, which has been highlighted quite categorically in the previous joint statements issued by New Delhi.

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Regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, France has hoped for India to change its stance on not openly condemning Russia. Though it was recently observed in the French diplomatic establishment, that even though India and France do not share the position on the Ukraine crisis, India has never categorically supported the Russian invasion. On the contrary, Modi’s remark to Russian President Putin - today’s era is not of war - reflects the desire to reduce the risk of escalation in this Eurasian conflict.

France has previously pointed out that the strategic closeness that India shares with Russia can be used in the serving of a channel of peace in this crisis. This remains a critical point of consideration for India, to assess the security dependence on Moscow, considering the ever-increasing China-Pakistan comradery and also the recent diplomatic warming up between  Xi and Putin, in their recent two days of talk in March declaring their equal criticism of the West. 

India has been sensitive about outrightly condemning Russia’s aggressions on the global stage, which faces a similar pattern during its military occupation of Crimea in 2014 as well. The NATO Summit and Modi’s visit to Paris will be a timely coincidence which might be prospective in re-assessing India’s role in European security. The subsequent question remains, what can be the role of India in Europe then? 

The outcomes of Ukraine and its effect on Asian geopolitics cannot be ignored. France has remained a controversial player, with respect to Russian aggression. Macron’s position of having a dialogue with Putin has been termed as improper in the European diplomatic networks, with a no-show of President Macron in Kyiv contributing to the larger assertion, that just giving aid to Ukraine, might not be enough. However, this might be just a  difference in the larger approach to looking at the conflict, just like the Indian position. Here, Modi’s visit to Paris might be yet another opportunity to concretise the position of India regarding Ukraine. 

The Modi-Macron dialogue is the potential forum where the co-development of Indian and French defence-industrial capabilities will further contribute to their shared threat perception in Asian security. Here, the increasing visibility of China with its 12-point peace plan for Ukraine highlights the shift in Chinese diplomatic strategy as witnessed earlier in the Middle East, brokering the normalisation agreement between Saudi and Iran. This is a similar strategy with respect to Ukraine, where China is seen utilising its positionality with Russia, in order to concretise its recent master plan of creating a global security architecture in the Global South i.e. the much contested Global Security Initiative.

China being increasingly closer to being the negotiator in the Eurasian conflict, will have a considerable effect on the balance of power conditions in Europe. India has a lot to miss, in terms of positioning its diplomatic capital right now, with respect to European peace and security. The condition currently, will require India to transform its passive policies regarding Europe, not however suggesting distancing itself from natural allies like Russia. Paris will be the right place to use its partnership with France, in being a nation perfectly aligned to serve as a balance between Russia and the rest of Europe.

However, it is often alleged that Europe has two different standpoints in dealing with China. While China remains the largest trading partner of the EU with an annual bilateral flow of € 850 billion, it is also cautious about Chinese governance issues in the Asia Pacific and its history with respect to the territorial sovereignty of other nations. Here, Europe should understand the obvious democratic alternative with countries like India. Security cooperation, like the first-ever India-EU defence consultations last year held in Brussels, stands clear of its equal recognition of being partners in securing maritime cooperation, the prospect of co-development and co-production of defence equipment. PESCO being the EU’s security and defence policy, needs to be further channelised to allow Indian participation in a much more intrinsic way. Chinese intervention in Eurasian politics will not be a good story to tell for both India and Europe. 

Apart from trade and investment, conflict resolution is another diplomatic gift that China is interested in offering to Europe right now. But the ulterior motives behind such peace proposals are clear in most European diplomatic networks. Hence, this particular week will be of paramount importance in trying to reposition India’s foci in European peace and security and discuss how India will be the best alternative to Chinese brokering.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer)

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