North Korea’s nuclear submarine: Coincidence or hostile timing?

On the eve of the G-20 Summit, North Korea declared the capability to operate a tactical nuclear submarine.

Even as the G-20, the world's primary economic powers, debated whether to include a reference to the Ukraine conflict in the Joint Communique issued following the Summit deliberations on September 9 and 10, North Korea, officially known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea [DPRK], claimed to have launched a tactical nuclear attack submarine, indicating a second-strike capability. 

"A new powerful entity has emerged to demonstrate the rapid development of the Juche-based naval force all over the world in the glorious journey of ushering in a new era of a great prosperous and powerful country with the world-renowned tremendous national defence capabilities, unprecedented in the DPRK's nation-building history, under the outstanding leadership of the ever-victorious Workers' Party of Korea (WPK)," read a report on the website of state-media KCNA.

Simply put, this meant launching "a Korean-style tactical nuclear attack submarine..... to bolster up the DPRK's naval force..... to further strengthen the state nuclear deterrence both in quality and quantity and by leaps and bounds" ironically "for regional and global peace and security." 

The launch took place two days earlier, on September 6, but the public announcement was made on September 8, the eve of the G-20 Summit. The summit was held in New Delhi, India on September 9 and 10.

Kim Jong Un, general secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and president of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's State Affairs Commission, was present, as were senior officials from the party, government, and military, including Marshal Ri Pyong Chol, Marshal Pak Jong Chon, Cabinet Premier Kim Tok Hun, and Admiral Kim Myong Si.

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Marshal Ri Pyong Chol delivered the order of the WPK's Central Military Commission transferring the tactical nuclear attack submarine No. 841 to the KPA Navy's East Sea Fleet and naming it the "Hero Kim Kun Ok."

Marshal Ri Pyong Chol ordered the submarine's launch once the plant manager notified him that it was ready for launch. Kim had previously examined the tactical nuclear submarine "Hero Kim Kun Ok" in preparation for a trial trip on September 7.

Evaluation of submarine's capabilities

Experts who have analysed the specifications of the submarine are skeptical. 

"An analysis of the external features of the North Korean submarine so far shows that parts of it have been enlarged to carry a missile," a Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) officer told reporters, according to South Korean news agency Yonhap.

"However, it is assessed that (the submarine) is not in the form of being capable of normal operation," the official added, indicating probable North Korean hyperbole. 

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According to Reuters, other researchers have reached similar conclusions since the "Hero Kim Kun Ok" is "a modified Soviet-era Romeo-class submarine that North Korea acquired from China in the 1970s and began producing domestically." 

Its configuration, with ten launch tube hatches, indicates that it is most likely equipped with ballistic and cruise missiles." The ageing submarine fleet is said to be loud during operation, making its detection by the enemy easier.

At the same time, there are concerns about the development of a military technological cooperation framework between North Korea and Russia, which might include nuclear-powered submarine technology, as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrives in Vladivostok for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a trade involving munitions for nuclear technology might raise new worries about North East Asia's stability.

Regional importance

The North Korean launch of the so-called tactical nuclear attack submarine came only weeks after the leaders of the United States, South Korea, and Japan met at Camp David to reaffirm their strong commitment to coordinated efforts at extended deterrence and intelligence sharing.

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The launch also came just days after South Korea and the United States completed an 11-day Ulchi Freedom Shield 2023 exercise with some provocative posturing.

Given the current patterns of escalatory movements by all parties - the US, South Korea, and the North Korea - peace and security on the Korean Peninsula will remain elusive even as global space is disputed in varied ways. 

Timing with respect to G20 Summit

The North Korean tactical nuclear assault submarine was launched shortly before the DPRK's 75th foundation day, but all eyes were on the impact it would have on the G-20 Summit, which began the next day in New Delhi.

Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the European Union are included in the G20. The G20 countries account for around 85% of worldwide GDP, more than 75% of global commerce, and almost two-thirds of global population. Apart from the main topics of economics, finance, and trade, the 2023 Chair of G-20, India, performed a wide range of activities with a whole-of-government approach spanning from tourism to climate change.

What is concerning is that India's stellar achievements in mobilising G20 members on a variety of economic issues could have been overshadowed by the ferocity of geopolitical events such as the war in Ukraine, the India-China Line of Actual Control standoff, and then North Korea's alleged demonstration of a tactical nuclear submarine. An agreement due on this topic could have been in question, which the US and South Korea would very certainly would have wanted to include in the Joint Communique despite likely opposition from China and Russia. The United States and its allies had condemned North Korea's missile tests conducted on July 25, 2023 and warned of further sanctions if the country continued to develop its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes.

In March 2023, North Korea announced that it was developing a new type of submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), but all this culminating into this early a launch wasn’t expected. This shows the growing threat of nuclear proliferation in the Asian region. The development of a nuclear-powered submarine is considered to be a significant escalation of North Korea's nuclear weapons program. It is feared to have given North Korea the ability to launch nuclear strikes from anywhere in the world, without the need to rely on land-based missiles, which are more vulnerable to attack.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

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