Options for the ‘Global South,' post the war in and over Ukraine

That the Economist newspaper of London is ‘rooting for war’ - as a ramrod issue of the West’s resolve in the war in and over Ukraine- reflects broad and deep shifts in international relations and world politics. It must be pointed out here that the very same newspaper was a zealous proponent of ‘liberal peace’- one major element of which was ‘complex interdependence’ induced by trade and capital flows. Now the Economist is not merely suggesting but actually asking the West to militarize and in the inversion of Clausewitz’s dictum suggesting ‘war is the extension of diplomacy’. This is, lets say for the uninitiated, extremely significant and portentous. Among other things, the Economist seems to be suggesting that,’ it is in the crucible of war that the West can not only ‘stem its perceived decline’ and reinvigorate itself but signal its resolve to its adversaries. What, the question, is, does this tell about international relations and world politics?

The answer is prosaic: Force and power are, were and remain the sine qua non of both. The rest- soft power (as important as it is but only as a complement to hard power), trade and capital (crisscrossing of these across the world), international organisations like the United Nations and so on- are mere sideshows to the real game of power politics. And that force is its ultima ratio. These ‘realities’ of world were occluded and obscured by the ‘roaring nineties’ and its after-effects that lingered for a little while in the 21st century. The ‘ roaring nineties’ also- at least in academic and to some degree practical terms- gave short shrift to the north-south divide. But in, for now, a loose sense, this divide is back. Given the rejig of and in international relations and world politics, what options does the Global South have? How can it comport itself?

First, the south must jettison both its past baggage and legacies plus some of the fads (promoted and promulgated by Thomas Friedman of the New York Times). The post-colonial interlude defined fashionable theories- dependency theory, autarky and import substitution- must not make a comeback if the Global South is to morph into a bloc of reckoning. Second, faddish theories propounded by Thomas Friedman, while not always wrong and not always right need to be viewed with some degree of skepticism. (Galilee was and is right: the world is round and contrary to Friedman’s formulation of the ‘flat world’ that is aimed to provoke his readers into thinking otherwise and accepting his worldview). Does the Global South then need to tread the middle road between the past, present and future?

No.

The world is changing and will change radically. Past markers or even paradigms will not work. Neither will faddish themes- no matter how well articulated and expressed. What are the options for the Global South?

To remain in the loop of ‘cutting edge developments and themes’ but yet maintain a distinct identity is the answer. How can this be achieved against the backdrop of the evolving war in and over Ukraine and the putative Cold War 2.0 where the Global South becomes ever more important?

The Global South must, at least for now, take a few leafs from the Non-Aligned Movement. That is, remain vigorously and decidedly non-aligned in the battle for world order, international relations and world political economy. In other words, instead of hitching its ‘proverbial wagon to either major protagonist in either hot or cold wars, the Global South must adopt a wait-and-watch strategy. This is not to suggest that the South latches onto a side that ‘wins’ or is more powerful. The broad idea for the constituents of the Global South is to develop and define their national interest(s) and integrate principles and values with the emerging raison d’etat. This would mean an expansive outward orientation but not an inward-looking approach. The ‘wait and watch’ strategy would also entail developing a capabilities approach in developing hard power and an economic development paradigm that redounds to the benefit of the South’s peoples. And importantly, the final denouement of the mini-conflicts and the overarching Cold War confrontation will allow for the Global South to see clearly what values are at stake, which are universally salient and which resonate and mesh with global peace and values.

World politics and international relations are in the midst of fundamental churn. How these denoue and pan out will determine world order and leave a far reaching ingress on it. This presents an opportunity for the Global South. It must ‘read the tea leaves’ with great prudence and care and veer to idea(s) that lead, in the long-duration scheme of things, to universal peace and its concomitant development.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

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