PM Modi’s US visit: A new chapter to be heralded for tech geopolitics

With only a few days left for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's state visit to the US, all eyes are now on the next chapter in the bilateral relations between the two countries. In the run-up to the visit, a slew of press briefings, official visits, and expert commentaries have surfaced, underlining the various facets of the evolving India-US partnership, the global geopolitical dynamics, and what to expect next. 

During the recent New Delhi visit, Pentagon official Ely Ratner underlined that PM Modi’s upcoming visit would be historic and set a new benchmark in the relationship. In another briefing in Washington DC, the US Press Secretary Karine Jean Pierre remarked that the US and India share a resolve to elevate the bilateral strategic partnership, and the discussions would centre around strengthening the commitment toward the Indo-Pacific region. 

Beyond everything else, the tech partnership is emerging as the most keenly observed theme on the agenda, not just for India and the US but also for Russia, China, Europe, West Asia, and others. 

Tech takes centre stage

With the signing of the US-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET), the intent to craft a high-technology bilateral partnership has been signalled by the highest echelons of policymaking in both countries. It has been widely appreciated for moving toward realising the vast potential for strengthening the US-India relationship. Through this initiative, India and the US have sought to create coordination and cooperation mechanisms on semiconductor supply chains, quantum computing, Artificial Intelligence (AI), 5G and 6G, and other emerging technologies. 

Taking the iCET forward, the inaugural meeting of the India-US Strategic Trade Dialogue (IUSTD) was held recently in Washington, DC, focusing on facilitating development and trade in critical domain technologies like AI, semiconductors, quantum, biotech, and telecom. To keep things on track, both have also agreed to set up a monitoring group to review the progress toward the bilateral high-tech trade and the deepening tech partnership. 

Further, a new roadmap for defence industrial cooperation—expected to fast-track technology tie-ups and co-production of military platforms—has been adopted, along with the soon-to-be-launched‘ India-US Defence Acceleration Ecosystem’ (INDUS-X) for advancing cutting-edge technology cooperation. This will supplement the governmental mechanisms by partnerships between companies, investors, research institutions, and start-up accelerators in the two countries. 

Impact on Tech Geopolitics 

Today, the 'Make in India policy' is focused on attracting global investments in various sectors. This is now complemented by the evolving geopolitical dynamics, where American firms are reshaping their supply chains and manufacturing in line with the growing tech rivalry with China.  

Beyond the bilateral track, India and the US could also seek to expand the tech partnership in other formats. For instance, pillar five under the new US national cybersecurity strategy emphasises utilising mechanisms like Quad to advance shared goals for cyberspace, in conjunction with other mechanisms like AUKUS to enable effective operational collaboration. 

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At the Quad level, India is engaging in cooperation in the high-tech sector through mechanisms like the 'Quad Critical and Emerging Technology' working group, while the other AUKUS nations (Australia and the UK) are also strengthening tech partnerships with India. According to some reports, the UK has also proposed a trilateral cyber partnership between India, Australia, and the UK. A closer US-India tech partnership will only deepen India’s engagement in these frameworks. 

However, not everything is as straightforward as the US and India would like. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has shaken the global geopolitical landscape. Along with other G7 members, the US has committed itself to ‘starving’ Russia of technology by disrupting the supply chains that fuel the Russian military and economy. In this light, Russia now aims to craft a Eurasian tech alliance where it sees both India and China as valuable partners. 

Though a strong Russia-China partnership in the tech domain is inevitable, Russian companies are now seeking the Indian market for investments and engagement. This was displayed in the recent India-Russia business forums, where Russian firms presented their tech offerings for the Indian market. Moscow has declared 2022-2031 as the decade of science and technology, seeking to build self-reliance and closer partnerships with friendly countries. In the new foreign policy strategy released in April this year, Russia reaffirmed the partnership with India as privileged and strategic, emphasising increasing bilateral trade, strengthening investment, and technological ties. 

On the other hand, China will see the growing India-US partnership as the next phase in its global tech competition with the US and its allies. It is now widely accepted that the US is at an inflexion point, with its tech superiority gradually waning compared to China. In its national strategies, the US now deems China as the “only country with both the intent to reshape the international order, and increasingly, having the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do so.” A greater Indian partnership with the US and its allies, as well as with Taiwan; and India’s decisions in recent years to ban Chinese technologies and platforms, will be seen in Beijing as New Delhi’s stamp of approval for the unfolding tech war. 

What’s next?

A closer India-US tech partnership will have ripple effects on the dynamics beyond bilateral levels. In the previous decade, China has been a significant partner in the tech domain for Europe. While for West Asia, Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia, China is now increasingly emerging as a major tech partner. As the war in Eastern Europe continues, US-led sanctions on Russia have pushed it into the Chinese tech ecosystem. However, Moscow is still looking to avoid complete dependence on Beijing. This is where India holds tremendous significance as a major tech hub for global tech dynamics. 

On its part, New Delhi has looked to increase its tech outreach to West Asia and sought to strengthen cooperation with the ASEAN. A closer India-US partnership can boost India’s capacity and capability for further outreach in regions like Africa and Central Asia, where China continues to make inroads. However, though India continues to maintain strategic autonomy by balancing both the West and Russia, apprehensions in Moscow will peak regarding the feasibility of India as a tech partner as New Delhi becomes enmeshed in the overlapping groups and frameworks led by the US. Overall, strong signals are in the air that the upcoming visit might define the Indian strategic direction in the tech domain for the decade ahead. 

Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.

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