Saudi-Iran deal highlights China’s growing global influence

Step by systematic step, Chinese President Xi Jinping is moving closer to his ambition to turn his country into a power that can match or surpass the United States as the global military, economic and diplomatic leader.

The latest move to fulfil that ambition was a Chinese-brokered breakthrough agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, long rivals for Middle Eastern dominance, to re-establish diplomatic relations and reopen their embassies after a seven-year rupture.

It was not by coincidence that the agreement, announced in the Saudi capital of Riyadh, coincided with a unanimous vote – 2,952-0 – in Beijing by the National People’s Congress to give Xi another five years in power, a third term without precedent.

The rapprochement prompted swift applause and thanks to China from the United Nations, with spokesperson Stephane Dujarric saying that “good neighbourly relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia are essential for the stability of the Gulf region.”

It is a region where the United States has been the dominant power broker for decades but the White House scoffed at suggestions that the Saudi-Iran agreement was a sign of waning American influence.

“I would stridently push back on the idea that we are stepping back in the Middle East – far from it,” John Kirby, the spokesman of the National Security Council told reporters. But Mark Dubowitz, head of the hawkish anti-Iranian Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, saw it as “a lose, lose, lose for American interests.”

In September 2020, Washington’s power to influence competing powers in the Middle East was highlighted by US-brokered agreements by Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to establish formal relations.

The so-called Abraham Accords were signed at the White House and then President Donald Trump hailed it as a significant foreign policy win.

China’s show of diplomatic muscle in the Middle East, with its role in the Saudi-Iran agreement, complements a systematic increase in Chinese involvement in Africa for the past two decades. With its Belt and Road Initiative, China grew political influence and commercial relationships through lending for infrastructure and mining projects throughout the continent.

America’s diminished influence in Africa, often reflected by abstentions or anti-US votes in the UN General Assembly, alarmed the administration of President Joe Biden enough to call a summit last December of almost 50 African heads of government. But whether that will dent China’s role as Africa’s largest trading partner remains to be seen.

Why is the Saudi-Iran agreement important? For one, it might help to end the long and brutal war in Yemen, where Iran is backing Houthi rebels who are fighting their Saudi-backed government antagonists.

Optimists might feel that the new agreement could also lessen centuries-old animosity between adherents of Islam’s two main strands. Saudi Arabia portrays itself as the keeper of the Sunni faith while Iran sees itself as the protector of the Shia minority.

It was a Sunni-Shia conflict that led to the break in relations between Riyadh and Tehran: In 2016, Iranian protesters invaded Saudi diplomatic posts in Iran in retaliation for the execution of a prominent Shia cleric, Nimr Baqir al-Nimr. A critic of the Saudi government, he was beheaded, along with 46 people executed for alleged terrorism offences.

A year later, Saudi Arabia blamed Iran for a series of attacks on oil installations, including one that temporarily cut Saudi oil production by almost half. Iran denied the action.

Analysts say that the Chinese-brokered agreement is likely to dim American hopes to broker a peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia to forge a united front against Iran, whose apparent progress towards building a nuclear bomb is a matter of great concern, not only for the US and the region but also the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Will there be Middle East stability in our time? Don’t bet on it. Will China, the world’s most populous country, eventually overtake the United States? Time will tell.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)

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