Spotlight | India-Canada row: What you see is what you don’t get 

The diplomatic bust-up between India and Canada is not without its uses. The bogey of Khalistan, for one, has much use at home as well as abroad and not only for the nation’s political leadership. 

The row has rallied critics of the BJP to come to the aid of the government. The ruling BJP can now take the 'I-told-you-so' high ground of national security towards all those who have been critical of its policies and practices beginning with the farmers’ protests and problems in Punjab to encounter killings and external affairs. 

The biggest use of the Khalistani bogey for the government, its loyal as well as ‘disloyal’ media, and the usual experts in foreign and strategic affairs is to keep national attention focused on bashing Canada and Khalistan so that no one gets a break from the din to point a finger at the role of the US in the whole affair.  

It is inconceivable that Canada would have publicly referred to agents of the Indian government being involved in the killing of a Sikh activist, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, on its territory without consultation, if not coordination, with the US. Going beyond the allegation of “credible evidence” made in Parliament, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau did not spare Prime Minister Narendra Modi. At a press conference on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session in New York, Trudeau spoke of a “direct and frank conversation” with Modi. He also underscored that Canada is “standing up for the rules-based order”, a euphemism for a US-led world order. 

Earlier, US Ambassador to Canada David Cohen had let the cat out of the bag when he revealed that Trudeau’s allegation against the Government of India (GoI) came after “shared intelligence among Five Eyes partners”. The US-led Five Eyes is a powerful intelligence and security alliance which includes Canada, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand.  

Cohen admitted to communication, consultation and coordination on the issue between Canada and the US and said: “It is critical that the Canadian investigation proceed, and it would be important that India work with the Canadians on this investigation. We want to see accountability.”   

Cohen’s assertions and position have been reinforced thereafter by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. “Regardless of the country, we will stand up and defend our basic principles”, said Sullivan. “And we will also consult closely with allies like Canada as they pursue their law enforcement and diplomatic process.” Calling it a case of “transnational repression” which the US takes “very, very seriously,” Blinken confirmed that the US is “coordinating” with Canada and wanted “accountability”. He was speaking in New York after a Quad meeting that External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar attended. (Significantly, reports suggest that Jaishankar skipped the BRICS meeting in New York, giving rise to speculation that this was to avoid causing any displeasure in Washington). 

The US has left no room for any doubt about which side it is on and what it expects of India. New Delhi is assuming that the US will not alienate India because it is an indispensable ally for containing China, the engine of Quad and critical to the Indo-Pacific strategy of the US and Quad. Therefore, the expectation in sections of the establishment is that at some stage in the ongoing row, the US will make common cause with India to isolate Canada. This persists despite reports of the FBI having warned Sikh activists of threats.  

Also read | Justin Trudeau, if Khalistanis seek a homeland in Canada, will you allow it? May be you should

The tough messages from the US would seriously put to the test whether the West values India over Canada; and China, which the US has been engaging intensively through a succession of dignitaries including Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and even the redoubtable Henry Kissinger. 

It is not easy for GoI to give in to the hard line taken by the US. The political leadership cannot roll over because Indians have now come to see Prime Minister Modi as a strongman who can stand up to any power and force at home and abroad.  

Also read: Explained | India’s dossier details Nijjar’s history of travel, terror and thuggery

On the other hand, since there can be no question of blaming the US or seeking a confrontation with the Five Eyes, India is aiming all fire at Canada and flogging the issue of Khalistanis in the hope that someone or something has got to give in. 

No matter how this row ends, it is time for GoI to take a closer look at India’s relations with the US and China, while the G2, as Blinken said last week, “continue to seek ways to work together on issues where progress demands our common efforts”. 

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