Unintended consequence: Military airstrikes in Myanmar signal Chinese claws sharpened by Ukraine war

When Europe sneezes, does Asia catch a cold? This is the big question on my mind after air raids in Myanmar by the ruling military junta against its own opposition this week, marking yet another step in former Burma's backward march to authoritarian rule from a fledgling democracy. 

The United Nations, the United States, and the Association of South-East Nations (ASEAN) have all condemned the airstrikes which are estimated to have killed an estimated 100 people in the Sagaing region where opponents of the military government had gathered for a ceremony. That the region is a stronghold of deposed opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s suspended National League for Democracy should indicate where things are going. In February 2021, the ruling generals simply pushed back the Nobel peace prize winner's elected party out of government in a coup even as the world was struggling to crawl out of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

In an interlinked world old equations are giving way to new uncertainties. President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine has decidedly tilted the balance in such a way that Europe and the United States would obviously be worried more about what happens in Kyiv and Moscow, than in Naypyidaw. That should in turn worry supporters of democracy, East of the Suez. Or, in geopolitical terms, the West in general because behind Myanmar's newfound authoritarianism, one can see a huge Chinese indifference, if not influence. 

It is usual in politics for some to be emboldened when they see less of a threat that would restrain them from taking some steps. The Ukraine war, coming in the wake of the painful Brexit that saw the UK exit the European Union and an economic crisis in Europe accentuated by the war, has created conditions for the mandarins in Beijing to move forward in increasing their influence across the planet, but most certainly in Asia. 

ALSO READ | World disorder: Can the Global South define itself? 

I would certainly link recent peace-making efforts taken by China to make Saudi Arabia and Iran come closer as one step, and the air raids in Myanmar to the super-power vacuum of sorts created in Asia by the Ukraine war. Naypidaw (or Nay Pyi Taw) literally means the Abode of Kings -- and that might be a sign of an authoritarian royalty taking away powers from pro-democracy civilians and common citizens. 

There was a time in the 1960s when Chairman Mao Ze Dong's communist party wanted his Cultural Revolution to extend to ethnic Chinese people outside of China and that caused anti-China riots in then Burma. But things have changed so much that it is possible to see Myanmar increasingly as an autocratic ally of China than a post-colonial nation edging towards a modern democracy. 

Chinese investments in Myanmar were under strain during NLD's democratic rule, and there have been threats issued by opposition groups to attack Beijing's assets if China supports military rulers. Beijing has moved nonchalantly since the coup to guard its interests, which include investments backed by a pile of debt. With Myanmar rich in natural resources and offering an opening to the Indian Ocean, the last thing on Beijing's mind would be a democratically elected government in the country. 

ALSO READ | The US dollar is shaky, but let us not dream of an alt-currency in a hurry 

One diplomat predicted in an article discussing the issue last year that China was going back to a business-as-usual mode in Myanmar and increasing support for the military junta. After NLD won power in 2016, it tried to regulate Chinese companies by forcing them to engage with local communities or change their methods. Clearly, doing business with military rulers is a lot easier for China -- and it has been doing so for decades anyway. Of late, Chinese-controlled companies are building a $2.5 billion power plant year Yangon and an economic corridor that includes a $7-billion deep-sea port at Kyaukphyu. 

India shares borders with both Myanmar and China. The junta's airstrikes come amid Beijing's efforts to describe some places in India's north-eastern Arunachal Pradesh state as part of Tibet, which is another sign of China stretching its dragon paws beyond accepted territory. India is naturally more than concerned. It has to.

All in all, Asia is aflutter because Ukraine sneezed. This is something for the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between India, Australia, the US and Japan) to take note. The AUKUS grouping (Australia, UK and the US) is a close cousin that also needs to get engaged on this. 

The bottom line is simple. If pluralist democracy matters in true principle and global security is linked to that, it is important to view the entire planet as one entity. We need durable peace in Ukraine to ensure stability in Asia. Everything else flows from there. Someone has to strike a delicate balance between economics and geopolitics. Diplomatic credibility matters more than ever before. 

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.) 

WATCH WION LIVE HERE

You can now write for wionews.com and be a part of the community. Share your stories and opinions with us here.