War in Yemen may be over, peace still needs to be won

On 10th March 2023, China took the world by surprise when it announced that Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to resume diplomatic relations, in a peace deal brokered by it. The peace deal offers hope for peace and end to conflicts in the region. Among such conflicts is the eight-year-long ongoing war in Yemen where Saudi-led coalition is pitched against Iran-backed Houthi rebels since March 2015. As per the peace deal, both sides have agreed to end their support to the war in Yemen. It may be recalled that Saudi Arabia, along with regional Arab Allies and the US, launched airstrikes in Yemen on 26th March, 2015 in the air assault codenamed "Operation Decisive Storm", in response to the Houthi’s armed conflict against the government of Yemen. 

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Already, there are signs of the peace deal taking shape in Yemen. On 09th April, Saudi and Omani delegations held talks in Sanaa with Houthi officials as well as the head of Houthi Supreme Political Council, Mahdi al-Mashat. The talks focused on an early reopening of Houthi-controlled ports and the Sanaa airport, nation rebuilding efforts and a clear timeline for foreign forces to exit the country. In the past few weeks, both sides have exchanged number of prisoners too, as a goodwill gesture. There were concerns that the armed conflict could resume after Ramzan as the ceasefire in Yemen had expired in October 2022, but there is hope that the relative calm over past one year may finally translate into cessation of hostilities. 

The conflict in Yemen however, goes well beyond the war since March 2015. The seeds of the unrest and conflict have a long history, mostly internal to Yemen and a long-lasting peace can only prevail only once both external and internal conflicts are resolved. 

Internal Conflict

The roots to the internal conflict in Yemen go back to 22nd May 1990 when the erstwhile two Yemeni nations were united and brought under a single flag. People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen) merged with Arab Republic of Yemen (North Yemen) to form a new country, ‘Republic of Yemen’. It was a forced union as, Yemen, since the 19th century, had been divided in two separate entities along a north-south divide.

North Yemen was part of the former Ottoman Empire, while South Yemen fell under British influence in 1839 when the British captured the port of Aden. After the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1918, North Yemen became an independent republic while South Yemen continued under the British until Britain withdrew in 1967, after which it was largely under control of communist forces, till unification in 1990.

The unification which came about more as a result of collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989, was a compromise and a power-sharing formula attempting to balance political power. President Saleh, who was the President of Arab Republic of Yemen (North Yemen) since July 1978, continued as the president while the southern leader al-Beidh was made the Vice president.

However, the simmering conflict continued. Outnumbered one-is-to-four in terms of population and facing discrimination in jobs and sharing of revenue, Southern Yemenis felt left out and exploited. The first national elections, held on 27th April 1993, which promised a solution to the political unrest, resulted in a stalemate as neither of the parties could muster up a majority.

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The impasse continued till King Hussein of Jordan helped negotiate Yemen’s Document of Pledge and Accord (DPA), signed in Amman in February 1994, promising a balanced and equitable distribution of power and decentralized system of governance. The hope for peace was shattered when Saleh’s forces attacked a camp of southern forces in Sanaa in April 1994.  

Suffering heavy losses, southern leader Ali Salem al-Beidh formally declared secession on 20th May.Armed clashes continued until 07th July 1994, when Saleh’s troops marched into Aden and declared victory. The military defeat and the continuing discrimination left the people in Southern Yemen feeling betrayed which slowly paved the way for the emergence of ‘Southern Movement’ in 2007, which has been fighting since for the rights of Southern Yemen. 

In July 2017, the Southern Movement, which was supporting President Hadi government and the Saudi coalition against the Houthis till then, formed a ‘Southern Transitional Council’ (STC), a secessionist movement focused on re-gaining independence for South Yemen. It was formed owing to a discord with President Hadi when Hadi fired governor of Aden in April 2017. 

Since then, the STC has attempted coup against the Hadi government twice, once in January 2018 and again in August 2019, when its forces overthrew the Hadi government and forced them to vacate Aden. After a sustained regional effort, the STC and the Hadi government signed the Riyadh Agreement in November 2019 which promised de-escalation and reconciliation. However, the STC soon scrapped the peace deal on 26th April 2020 and declared self-rule in key port city of Aden and other southern provinces. It later rescinded its declaration of self-rule on 29th July 2020, through Saudi mediation efforts.  
Current Crisis 

The current conflict owes its origin to the ‘Arab Spring’ protests in 2011. Thousands of protesters, angered by continuing poverty, unemployment and corruption, gathered in the capital city Sanaa in January 2011, calling for President Saleh to step down as president. Saleh initially was dismissive about the protests but later offered concessions including assurance to step down after the current term ends in 2013. However, on 18th March, when protesters in Sanaa were fired upon by Saleh loyalists, killing at least 50 people, many officials, diplomats, ministers, and members of parliament resigned in protest. These included Maj. Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, commander of the army’s 1st Armoured Division and one of the most powerful military officers in Saleh government. 

Crisis intensified and on 03rd June, President Saleh was injured in a bomb blast in the presidential palace.  He was rushed to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment. Meanwhile, the GCC countries along with the UN attempted a peaceful resolution to the crisis and formulated a plan called ‘GCC Initiative’ in May 2011 to support an agreement on the peaceful transfer of power.

On 21st October, 2011, the UNSC voted unanimously to pass the resolution UNSC Resolution 2014 which called for immediate implementation of GCC initiative and transfer of power in Yemen. On 23rd November 2011 finally, President Ali Abdullah Saleh signed a power–transfer agreement and relinquished post of the President to hand over power to Vice President Abdu Rabbo Mansour Hadi. A National Dialogue Conference (NDC) too was launched in March 2013 to reach consensus on major issues facing the country's political future but conflict continued and the Houthis kept extending their reach across the country. 

In September 2014, armed Houthi tribesmen overran Sanaa, seizing key government buildings. On 21st January 2015, Houthi fighters overran the presidential palace. President Hadi and PM Khaled Bahah (along with the cabinet) were placed under house arrest and thereafter resigned on 22nd January 2015. Hadi escaped to Aden on 21st February describing the Houthi takeover of Sana’a as a “coup”.  The Houthis took control of Taiz Airport and entered Aden unopposed on 25th March 2015, completing control of the three major cities in the country, Sana’a, Taiz and Aden. President Hadi fled to Riyadh on 25th March and the Saudi-led coalition launched airstrikes on 26th March 2015. The war have continued ever since.

Conclusion

The conflict in Yemen is therefore, equally about the external as well as the internal fault lines. While the Saudi-Iran peace deal many lead to formal end to the war between the Coalition and the Houthis, the more acute internal conflict may take longer. The mistrust between the South and the North would take time and trust to heal. However, it would be best left for the people to internally and mutually come with their own peace formula. A federal government with decentralized power structures in the North and South with a balanced and fare revenue-sharing structure could be one option.

The other could be an option taking Yemen back to the pre-1990 era of two nations sharing borders, but in peace and mutual respect. There may be other options too. The ‘Arab Spring’ protests of the previous decade have however taught the world a clear lesson. Political changes are best reconciled within the representatives groups of people themselves and external interference only brings about chaos. 

Finally, Yemen has suffered for far too long. It is an important country of the Arabian Peninsula and holds the key to a very critical choke point across the Red Sea at Bab-al-Mandab for the global trade. The UN has called Yemen one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises. In 2023, a staggering 21.6 million people require some form of humanitarian assistance as 80 percent of the country struggles to put food on the table and access basic services. It is time now for Yemen to heal and for peace to have a chance.

Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.

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