Who is the boatman, who is the passenger? Sinking Pakistan needs some answers

Indians and Pakistanis disagree and squabble over many things, often over the Partition of the undivided subcontinent in 1947 or their bone of contention, Kashmir, where terrorism and separatism are often indistinguishable from each other. But the two nations are occasionally united by a common love for Bollywood films and music.

It is appropriate to recall a popular number sung by Kishore Kumar in the 1970s to highlight Pakistan's predicament in a week that has been tumultuous even by the country's frenetic public life standards in which corrupt politicians, feudal landlords, political generals, religious extremists and a struggling middle class create a social mess that makes democracy difficult. Former prime minister Imran Khan's arrest and the eruption of widespread public anger against the all-powerful army has been visually strong enough to ask: where is this going to end?

In the 1972 movie Amar Prem, a plaintive number's lyrics by Anand Bakshi are evocative of betrayals, unpleasant surprises and dilemmas of the kind Pakistan is facing now.

Majhdhaar mein naiyyaa dole,
to maanjhee paar lagaaye
maanjhee jo naav duboye
usay kaun bachaaye?

(Translation from Hindi)

When the boat dwindles in midriver currents,
the boatman takes it to the shore,
but when the boatman drowns a boat,
who can save it?

Right now, Pakistan is in the throes of an existential dilemma. Who is the boatman who must sail it out of the current economic and political crisis? And more important, pray, who is the boatman who sank it? Is it the army with its history of meddling in civilian affairs? Is it the ruling coalition of the Pakistan People's Party and the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) that is reeking of familiar political vendetta? Or Imran Khan himself, having betrayed the army that once steered him quietly to the top?

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Earlier this week, as angry crowds swirled to storm military facilities across Pakistan, including the venerable army headquarters in the cantonment city of Rawalpindi, I found myself surrounded on Twitter after what I thought was a merely factual tweet about an "attempted revolution" by supporters of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), Khan's party.

People who I could sense were the party's critics and opponents were eager to tell me that I was ill-informed, by implication suggesting that the former cricket captain was not as popular as it seemed and that the street protests were stage-managed and would be short-lived. If the arson and looting we saw in videos and on TV were any indication, my critics were not too informed of what was going on either.

Whispers, hints and gossip suggest the army is itself divided, but here we enter the territory of rumours blessed by the WhatsApp University. What is clear is that the measured, mellow reaction of Pakistan's army has been remarkable for its restraint in a country where the military is known to have seized power whenever there was chaos or even mere political opposition to its wishes. The generals are rarely known to bide their time or watch in silence.

The current context is of a Pakistan that is torn between tilting towards the US, its long-time military backer, and China, its recent love interest in economic and diplomatic matters.

Khan's official declaration of sovereignty and his open diplomatic flirting with President Vladimir Putin's Russia when the Ukraine war broke out might want some to say that his politics resembles his serially monogamous and allegedly polygamous romantic life. Whatever the truth, his dalliance did not augur well for his prime minister's chair.

As he found himself out of office in what might be called a civilian coup by his rivals, his street hero self resurfaced.  But he is now tangled in a chain of corruption and other police cases, under one of which the paramilitary Pakistani Rangers arrested him from the Islamabad High Court (literally abducted as per video shots). The judiciary has granted him bail, but its own role is shaky.

The tussle between the judiciary and the military is now as visual and loud as a Bollywood thriller can be. PMLN leader Maryam Nawaz, daughter of the deposed prime minister Nawaz Sharif, is openly slamming the Chief Justice of Pakistan as Imran's man and accuses him of aiding a criminal.

Here's the puzzle now: If Imran Khan is popular as he claims to be, elections can solve Pakistan's problems at least in terms of giving it some political heft. But there is a rulebook that the coalition in power may throw at Khan, having wrapped him up in more than 100 cases.

Under Article 62(1)(f) of the Pakistan constitution, a person cannot be qualified as a member of the national or provincial legislatures if he is not ‘Sadiq and Ameen’ – truthful and trustworthy. Any old flimsy tale is now valid ground to keep the Khan away from elections.

The subtext seems to be that the army will call the shots as the CJI is being discredited. Few can match Pakistan's army in raw, brute power evidenced by a history of coups. But, if gossip about a divided army (the belief or wishful thinking of PTI supporters) is any indication, there is the possibility of a political implosion. In the scenario of such a crisis, the country's familiar theme of martial law may play out again. Even if Imran Khan is popular, the chances of his supporters cinematically driving the generals back into their barracks is more Bollywood than Rawalpindi.

That leaves us wondering as to what the Americans will do. Uncle Sam has left Afghanistan doddering, and he is not going to step into Pakistan's mess anytime soon. But Imran Khan's last rants were against American influence in his departure from power. That should endear him to the Chinese mandarins. Investments in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor have crossed $65 billion, and if not to increase their regional influence, at least to save Chinese money, Beijing may play its own geopolitical game. In fact, early signs are already there.

So the boat is still rocking midstream, and the reticent army is watching a confrontation between the executive and the judiciary. If there are serious differences within the army, which has historically been a disciplined force respecting hierarchical commands internally, we are yet to see any clinching evidence.

Whoever takes the next big step, has to contend with the fact that the US cannot be wished away.  The International Monetary Fund, in which the US commands the highest vote share, said after Imran's arrest and the bail granted to Khan by the Supreme Court of Pakistan that the country needs "significant additional financing" to tide over its balance of payments crisis.

If the army helps Imran Khan's rival groups, it would be a familiar case of generals rigging a democracy. PPP was founded by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who was once close to General Ayub Khan but later formed his party to take on the generals.  Bhutto was himself deposed in a coup by General Zia ul Haq, a man he appointed as army chief over the heads of seniors. You never know who is what in Pakistan.

If the Constitution is cited to keep Khan out of an election process, it would be a case of the army confronting the judiciary again. In Pakistan's political soap opera, friends turn foes fast. That much we have seen in Imran Khan's colourful personal life as well.

Back to the same Bollywood song :

Koi dushman thes lagaaye,
to meet jiyaa bahlaaye
manmeet jo ghaav lagaaye,
use kaun miTaaye?

(Translation from Hindi)

When an enemy hurts you,
a friend can console you.
but when a close friend gives you a wound,
who can remove it?

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)