Why global players must be concerned of new version of Charm Offensive in Xi Jinping 3.0 era

When Joshua Kurlantzick coined the term ‘charm offensive’ for China in 2007, it simply referred to China’s use of soft power to improve its global status and image, as part of its peaceful rise. Many strategists named Mao Zedong’s era China 1.0 and Deng Xiaoping’s era of opening up of economy China 2.0, wherein the USA helped China get richer, least realising the magnitude of the challenge it may pose after its rise.

Xi Jinping’s rise to power as “Chairman of Everything” in 2013 saw a transformation of peaceful China to an Assertive China (China 3.0) marching towards its Dream of national rejuvenation, and the goal of turning China into a modern socialist prosperous and strong country, by 2049. The charm offensive then transformed into what China termed “Public Diplomacy”.

Michael Pillsbury decoded this trajectory in his 2016 book The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower. The competition between China and USA in Xi’s era also transformed into Cold War 2.0, with both sides intensifying the economic, political and diplomatic competition between them. The COVID-19 pandemic and pushback against China, seen to be profiteering out of it, besides aggressive postures in the neighbourhood, led to “Wolf Warrior Diplomacy” and coercion, aimed to avoid criticism of its actions during the pandemic.

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The constitutional oath-taking ceremony in Beijing at the ‘two sessions’ 2023, started with Xi Jinping 3.0 era, with challenges of internal dissent due to the ‘Zero Covid Policy’ and increasing decoupling, which has led to a ‘Smart Diplomacy’ as the latest version of Charm Offensive, where it seems to have made some significant gains in denting US influence in many areas. The ‘Telephone Diplomacy’ by new Foreign Minister Qin Gang of China of talking to his counterparts globally, and a series of successful visits by Xi Jinping have seen some favourable results. The obsession of the Biden Administration with the war in Ukraine, pursuing Cold War 1.0 with Russia, in addition to Cold War 2.0 with China has worked to China’s advantage, leaving the US overstretched to pursue both Cold wars simultaneously.

Growing Strategic Footprints in West Asia

Chinese smart diplomacy of Xi Jinping 3.0 era aims at having strong relations with any country, which has troubled relations with the US due to any reason, on Chinese terms. It signed a $ 400 billion deal with Iran, to ensure its long-term supply of oil, which suited Iran too, which was suffering under US sanctions. What the Chinese have learnt is to avoid picking up issues with partner countries which do not impact it economically. Therefore, China ignores what Iran is doing to its women protesters, or Taliban doing to its people as part of its new smart diplomacy. In contrast, the US obsessed with global moral policing (despite the inability to control its own internal gun violence) arrogantly assumes the moral right to lecture the world on human rights, thereby spoiling relations with many countries including friends, on issues not necessarily relevant to US interests.

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President Xi Jinping’s successful visit to Saudi Arabia, after not so welcomed the visit of the US President, scored a diplomatic point with many commercial agreements in place. China brokering the resumption of diplomatic ties between arch-rival Saudi Arabia and Iran has bigger implications for shrinking US strategic space in West Asia. The Arab unity seems to be rejuvenating with some of them welcoming Syria into the Arab fold. The biggest advantage which China may gain is that such a group of partners will soon be trading in local currencies/Yuan which marks the beginning of a decline long term monopoly of the dollar, which made the US the most powerful, due to its hold on the global financial system.

Is China a Wild Card in Russia Ukraine War?

President Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Moscow with the “Strategic Partnership with no limit” tag was impressive optics, but nothing worthwhile in terms of military hardware support to Russia. It, however, gave a stern diplomatic message that neither Russia is diplomatically isolated as US-led NATO will like to imagine, nor sanctions can bring Russia to its knees and both countries are looking towards a “Multipolar Global Order”. The partnership also assumes significance in the context of Sino-Russian footprints in the Arctic region and the North Atlantic Ocean.

China has left USA-led NATO to speculate with concern, about the extent of Chinese lethal support to Russia (if any), notwithstanding Zelensky’s reports of increasing traces of lethal support, as it may become a crucial turning point of the war. The US threatened China with sanctions, which responded by mocking the US as morally not qualified to give orders to China, after sending billions of dollars worth of aid, to fuel the war and its history of invasions in Iraq and Libya. China, however, is unlikely to compromise its largest consumer market in US and EU; hence, has denied any combat/lethal support to Russia. China also improved its diplomatic score by offering a 12-point peace proposal, which it knows that US/Ukraine will never agree to.

The most significant diplomatic ripples are visible in Europe, which under immense economic pressure seems divided in following US dictate in prolonging war or decoupling with China, which is the largest trading partner of many European countries. During a visit to China, President Macron's suggested that European countries were too subservient to the US and should not be Washington’s “followers. His remarks “Being an ally does not mean being a vassal” and similar sentiments by various segments of society in Germany have adequately discomforted the US-led NATO and can be encouraging for China’s smart diplomats. The beeline of visitors from Europe and other continents (including President Lula) to Beijing on the excuse of using Chinese influence to moderate Putin, in real terms indicates economic interests outside US orbit.

Growing Trade with Global Players

During the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global pitch was to decouple from the Chinese-led supply chain. Interestingly, the last year has seen that the trade volume of China with every competitor, and critique has increased despite each of them announcing the relations as strained. Be it the US, Europe or India, all have made significant gestures of decoupling, but ended up with more trade with China. Incidents of application of Chinese ‘Three Warfare Strategy’, influence operations, secret police stations, spy balloons and digital encroachment have been reported, but it hasn’t affected trade to the extent claimed. In the case of India, despite the ongoing standoff at Ladakh, the trade grew to a record $ 136 billion and the trade deficit crossed $100 billion in favour of China. It indicates a smart power play in ‘Big Power Contestation’ in Xi Jinping's 3.0 era.

What Can India Do?

In the ongoing global powerplay, India has made some good diplomatic moves in the recent past including not taking sides in Russia Ukraine War and withstanding pressures from China as well as the West, in its own national interest. It has made India’s position important for West

as well as anti-West camps, as both will like to have India on their side, as it changes the strategic balance significantly. For the US-led West, it's not possible to keep China under check without India, and for India too, China with the unresolved border and ongoing standoff, can’t be its friend, so long the border issue sees some resolution.

India, therefore, needs to continue with all ongoing strategic partnerships, not take sides, continue acting as per its national interest and most importantly develop its Comprehensive National Power (CNP) through self-reliance and diversification of inescapable dependencies in both opposing camps. Till India attains a high level of CNP, self-reliance, military capacity building and infrastructure development and inclusive growth on borders, it has no choice but to continue with strategic balancing in Big Power Contestation, while maintaining its strategic autonomy, besides maintaining a strong military posture to maintain its territorial integrity, on its borders and at strategic points in the maritime domain.

The world community must take note of the Chinese new era of the Charm offensive, the use of soft power, infrastructure offensive, digital and economic encroachment to pursue Chinese interests and undermine the interests of others. It must counter it in a similar dimension, collectively, to ensure that assertive China` doesn’t become too aggressive to build a China-centric chaotic world order in the name of multi-polar world order.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.) 

Major General S B Asthana,SM, VSM,Ph.D.

(The views expressed are personal views of the author, who retains the copyright).

The author can be reached on Facebook and LinkedIn as Shashi Asthana, @asthana_shashi on Twitter, on Koo as  @shashiasthana and his personal site, email  LinkedIn Profile and Youtube link.

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