Spotlight | Xi overture to Zelensky: More than meets the eye

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “long and meaningful” telephone conversation with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on April 26 has set the cat among the pigeons in the US-led West that is fighting a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine.

The question is no longer whether China can broker peace in Ukraine. More pertinent would be to ask what will follow the Xi-Zelensky talk, now that Xi has emerged at the top of the list of prospective peacemakers in Ukraine.

Just months ago, few would have seen China as a peace broker between Ukraine and Russia. But after China brought together Saudi Arabia and Iran in Beijing and set the two West Asian powers on the path to normalising their relations, there can be no doubt that China is serious. Xi appears to have a plan, if not a solution, for at least cessation of hostilities if not peace.

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Soon after Xi’s two-day state visit to Moscow last month—during which he referred to Russian President Vladimir Putin as his “dear friend” and proposed a general, if not vague, 12-point peace plan — Zelensky invited him to Kyiv for talks. He pointed out that the two had made no contact after the war began in February 2022 although they had been in touch before that.

Neither needed to mention that China is Ukraine’s largest trading partner and has vital economic interests to protect in that country. China is also heavily invested in major transport infrastructure projects in Ukraine. These are long-term interests and call for a long-term perspective, which may explain Xi’s readiness to work towards building strategic ties with Ukraine. And, what better way to do it than as a peace broker at this critical juncture.

Given the growing distrust between Kyiv and Washington and also between the US and its leading allies in Europe, as exposed by the recently leaked Pentagon documents, Zelensky decided to bite the bullet and woo the Chinese president. He had good reasons to, for China proclaimed itself to be firmly on the “side of peace,” although it had not condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine. While Xi flaunted his bond with Putin, he made it known that he was neutral on the Russian “military operation” in Ukraine. 

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When Xi said that Kyiv should “seize the opportunity and build up favourable conditions for the political settlement,” it was, doubtless, a reference to the growing distrust between Ukraine and the US. 

Substantively, in his talk with Zelensky, Xi reiterated Beijing’s long-standing position that “mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity is the political foundation of China-Ukraine relations.” On the Ukraine war, Xi impressed on Zelensky that China’s “core stance is to facilitate talks for peace”, as per the 12-point plan set out on February 24. He also made it clear that Beijing would be proactive in pressing for dialogue and negotiation as the only way forward. 

Xi proposed that China will “make its efforts for early ceasefire and restoration of peace”. Of course, few expect this to happen in the near term. But the fact that China will send a Special Representative on Eurasian Affairs to Ukraine and other countries for in-depth exchanges with all parties on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis, is a clear signal of Xi’s earnestness.

Taller European leaders such as France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz may be inclined to support the Chinese initiative, given their explicit aversion to being trapped in the bloc-versus-bloc politics of the US.

Game on.

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