Year after year droughts, megadroughts to occur much earlier in Europe: Study

Extreme drought and heat may occur year after year much earlier in Europe than previously thought. 

A study published in Communications Earth & Environment suggests that there is more than a 10 per cent chance that Europe could see two consecutive years of massive heat and drought crisis between 2050 and 2075.

Previously it was believed that such a climate crisis could unfold by the end of the 21st century.

Shockingly, the study also claimed that there were slight chances that a mega-drought may also occur, where extreme heat may last for five consecutive years.

Heat and drought triggered by climate change

Climate change results in more frequent extreme weather and climate events, such as droughts, heat waves, floods and fires, leading to significant socio-economic damage. 

Furthermore, the impact of increased variability in the North Atlantic system on these extreme events in Europe also remains uncertain.

Watch: Europe's extreme heat crisis

Laura Suarez-Gutierrez and her team investigated the potential occurrence of end-of-century heat and drought stress in Europe, considering the role of North Atlantic variability over the decades. 

Their study focused on a moderate climate scenario, projecting a warming of approximately 2.25ºC by the century's end. 

Using various metrics for single and compound heat stress and drought extremes, the authors conducted 100 simulations using the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble climate model.

European farmers already ‘feeling the heat’

Meanwhile, climate change-driven heatwaves and droughts are already taking a massive toll on European farmers.

“In Europe and around the world, the level of risks for the food system, functioning ecosystems and human health are substantially increased by higher levels of warming,” Dr Peter Alexander, senior lecturer in agriculture and food systems at the University of Edinburgh, was quoted as saying by Euro News.

Experts say that the countries in the south may beat the burden of the climate crisis. Farmers in nations like Italy and Portugal have to spend more on maintaining their crops now, leading to reduced profits.

Also read: Extreme heat caused 70,000 excess deaths in Europe in 2022: Study

While England might not experience the long months of extreme heat in the same way as countries in the south of Europe do, farmers are worried about constant, heavy flooding pelting down on their farms.

The climate crisis, which is only going to grow worse in the coming years, has also driven farmers' suicide rates up in nations like France.

A recent survey revealed the suicide rate for French farmers was 20 per cent higher than the national average.

(With inputs from agencies)